HCA cuts profit forecast as Obamacare coverage losses drive up uninsured patients

HCA Healthcare cut its annual profit forecast on Tuesday, citing a rise in the number of uninsured patients, largely those who dropped coverage under "Obamacare" plans.

Americans are dropping off the plans - established under former President Barack Obama's Affordable Care Act - this year as many struggle to make payments due to the end of extra subsidies created during the COVID-19 pandemic.

"Obamacare" enrollment fell 13% this year, and hospitals now face declining elective surgeries and diagnostic volumes, even as costs rise from providing uncompensated care to more uninsured patients.

Shares of HCA, the largest for-profit U.S. hospital operator, fell 6% in morning trading, while those of smaller peer Tenet slid more than 2%. Universal Health Services' stock fell 5%.

"This news feeds into investor fears about how new regulatory moves may affect HCA and the rest of the hospital industry's near-term profit growth trajectory, following several years of excellent results on surging medical utilization," said Morningstar analyst Julie Utterback.

"So momentum is stalling, and this change foreshadows a potentially steeper impact than investors have been expecting in 2027-28 when Medicaid spending and supplemental payment cuts start."

HIT FROM COVERAGE LOSS WORSE THAN EXPECTED

For the second quarter, HCA's same-facility inpatient surgeries declined 2.3% and outpatient surgeries declined 3.4%.

HCA now sees annual profit per share between $28.7 and $30.5, compared with its previous forecast range of $29.1 to $31.5.

"We believe the market had some concerns around these pressures, but we believe this was slightly worse than expected," said Oppenheimer analyst Michael Wiederhorn.

Analysts said the softness in surgeries might be a potential positive for insurers.

HCA estimated the patient shift had an unfavorable impact of about $400 million in the second quarter, including a $75 million increase tied to its previous first-quarter estimate.

It also narrowed its annual revenue forecast and reported preliminary second-quarter revenue of $20.23 billion, above analysts' average estimate of $19.43 billion, according to LSEG data.

HCA will host its second-quarter earnings call on July 24.

(Reporting by Christy Santhosh and Sriparna Roy in Bengaluru; Editing by Leroy Leo)

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This story was originally published July 14, 2026 at 10:35 AM.