Pregame analysis: Houston County vs. Northside

Writer's note: Technical, human glitch delayed publication.

The easy thing to do would be to throw you the link to last year's analysis, advise you to change a few names, and that'd be about it.

And it wouldn't be far off, so similar are the teams to last year.

But yet they are different.

Neither has the same punch out of the backfield.

Houston County had the extremely underrated Kenny Gant, who ran with power but was a superb receiver who constantly got open and did something once he caught the ball.

He ran for 1,371 yards and 24 touchdowns, and caught 42 passes for 441 yards and another seven. Entering this game, he had 30 catches for 329 yards and five scores. He'd be first this year in catches, tied for first with TD catches, and fifth in yards.

So that's different.

Northside's Willie Jordan had 1.326 yards amd 21 touchdowns on 159 carries at this point. Successor Desean Dinkins has 18 touchdowns and 906 yards on 131 carries.

Hmm. Maybe the Eagles aren't as different as we thought. Then again, they have 40 fewer carries and 413 fewer yards. But the differnece in yards per carry is four-tenths of a yard.

Some of the key characters are different, but the numbers overall aren't that far off.

Houston County offense vs. Northside defense

The receivers aren't having as good a year as in 2014, and there's that big chunk of yardage and points missing from the backfield.

Jake Fromm had a very rough night against Jones County, between a great pass rush, superb coverage and scores of dropped passes.

Yet to think the Bears are off is a mistake. They haven't been as sharp as a year ago, but they're becoming a better offense, thanks to a greater emphasis on the run game.

The one major difference is fewer pass-catching yards out of the backfield, which means defenses can cover the wideouts more. That also means a slightly open door to put pressure on Fromm.

And by all accounts, Northside's defensive front is quicker than last year.

Another difference is the absence, for the most part, of Darion Anderson on offense. Health has forced him to play substantially fewer snaps on offense and focus on defense. He has only 11 catches for 208 yards and four touchdowns.

Here's an observation from last year.

In the second half, Northside basically rushed three, and Fromm had plenty of time.

That's not good, because the Bears' pass game is on timing, and using little time. Fromm drops back, bounces maybe twice, and the ball is gone.

Having time disrupts timing, and Fromm was hesitant to just take off. If he had, he'd have gotten about 8 yards a pop every time, until the defense changed.

Jones County forced him to move around more, perhaps more than in any game against a decent opponent. So much so, that he actually took off on a quarterback draw, and got big fourth-down yardage.

He's a good enough athlete and tough enough football player to do that much more often, so don't be surprised if he doesn't just take off three or four times against Northside, especially if the Eagles leave the short middle open while coverage deep and outside.

The Eagles have a challenge because few opponents throw all that much, and certainly not as well as the Bears. The fairly young secondary can't miss reads and most certainly can't miss tackles.

And Houston County receivers, from left to right, are due for a quality game as a unit.

Northside offense vs. Houston County defense

The Eagles' game plan is basically the same, but there's no big Willie Jordan to wear down a defense with 25-30 carries. And Jordan's backup, TJ Anderson, was a first-teamer in a second-team role.

So quarterback Tobias Oliver is running a little bit more, and passing a hair less. That's odd, since you'd think defenses would key more on him without the proven tailback.

Rest assured somebody's job will be to hit Oliver on every play. After all, it was in the second half last year that he took over and pulled the Eagles out of a hole and into the win column.

Northside's passing game is still up and down, but the Eagles have more weapons among the skill positions. They can stretch the field a little more with a variety of players, like Treyvon Willis and Marcus Jolly, who are threats.

Sometimes, it seems like Houston County tries to get cute and misses something.

A seeming failure to adjust to something simple --like slants -- allowed Stockbridge to pull away in the second half of last year's playoff loss.

But the Bears have the talent, depth and flexibility to play a fairly base defense and give just about any offense trouble.

This year, in fact, Houston County has a size advantage up front on both sides. There's a reason the Bears didn't give up a rushing touchdown until the Jones County game (where the defense seemed to whiff on some basic stuff).

Special teams

You could have made a whole lot of money betting that last year's difference would be a missed PAT.

Just no way.

And yet there it was, a Jordan Strevig miss with 10:07 left in the fourth, the Bears taking a 33-20 lead.

Head coach Von Lassiter said Strevig has a short memory, and it's in the past and has had no effect on Strevig.

True, but human nature is to think of something like that, and it'll creep into Alonso's head as well. Until they make that first PAT.

Kickoffs will be key. Will they go with squibs or just straight kickoffs deep? Try for turnovers or touchbacks?

The turf should mean true snaps on all kicks, and with the teams being similar to last year and familiar with each other, don't be surprised if they take advantage of that nice, new turf and try a field goal a little quicker than usual.

Finally

For all of the analysis one puts into a game, whether it's Houston County-Northside or Alabama-LSU, it comes down to a few simple things:

Who blocks the best or gets off blocks the best, and who plays simple, fundamental football. Whether a team throws 9 times a game or 29, or runs 75 percent of the time or not, controlling the line of scrimmage is the first path to a win.

After that, it's making tackles, making reads and holding on to the ball. Three great plays can be erased by one or two bad ones.

Northside's worst game was against North Cobb on the road in the opener, and the Eagles pulled it out.

Houston County's worst game was at Jones County, and the Bears let chances galore slip away while also being outplayed in some areas.

The Eagles have to mix up pressure and coverage to disrupt timing. The Bears can't give up big plays as well as long drives by Northside's option.

Unless they get an early lead and are playing steady defense, the Eagles will have to pass the ball a little more than usual. But Northside may be surprised at how well Houston County runs the ball should the Bears get an early lead.

Houston County's win went to defeat on defense. Northside converted a fourth and 5, then a third and 10 and got a Houston County penalty on second-and-20 for a first down en route to a touchdown pass with 5:04 left.

Then the Bears gave up 13 on second and 12, 14 on second and 10 and 25 on a first down to set up the game-tying touchdown with 49.9 seconds left, Justin Alonso winning it with the PAT.

Third and long is what dreams and nightmares are made of, and probably will be again in a game that will astound us only if it's not as fascinating as last year's.

This story was originally published November 7, 2015 at 3:19 AM with the headline "Pregame analysis: Houston County vs. Northside ."