Braves’ rotation should get younger, not older

There are always several reasons why a team has a losing record. For the Atlanta Braves, it really comes down to the pitching, which is unusual considering that has been the focal point of the rebuilding process.

Atlanta’s team ERA is 4.77, sixth-worst in baseball. The bullpen ERA is 4.62, fourth-worst in the sport. The starting rotation’s ERA is 4.85, eight-worst in the game.

The inclination is for the team to go shopping for pitching this winter. Yes, go get relievers. Do that. But when it comes to the rotation, history tells us it might be wise to get younger and go with their own.

Let’s go back to the last time the Braves went through a rebuilding process, the late 1980s. Look at the games started by the pitchers in year three of the rebuild (1988) and year four (1989):

1988 Braves

Age Pitcher Games started

34 Rick Mahler 34

22 Tom Glavine 34

22 Pete Smith 32

27 Zane Smith 22

21 John Smoltz 12

23 Kevin Coffman 11

25 German Jimenez 9

33 Charlie Puleo 3

25 Kevin Blankenship 2

29 Jim Acker 1

Number of games started by pitchers 24 years old and younger – 89 of 160 (56 percent)

1989 Braves

Age Pitcher Games started

23 Derek Lilliquist 30

22 John Smoltz 29

23 Tom Glavine 29

23 Pete Smith 27

27 Marty Clary 17

28 Zane Smith 17

22 Tommy Greene 4

25 Gary Eave 3

24 Rusty Richards 2

24 Sergio Valdez 1

34 Charlie Puleo 1

21 Kent Mercker 1

Number of games started by pitchers 24 years old and younger – 123 of 161 (76 percent)

In 1987, The number of games started by pitchers 24 years old and younger was 20 (out of 161 – 12 percent). So, the rotation got younger in 1988 and even younger in 1989, the fourth year of the rebuild. Then in 1990, that number dipped just a bit from the previous season, as 120 of the 162 games (74 percent) were started by pitchers 24 years old and younger.

So, what about this year, which is season three of the current rebuild? Here is the list of games started and their ages:

2017 Braves

Age Pitcher Games started

26 Julio Teheran 26

42 R.A. Dickey 25

25 Mike Foltynewicz 25

30 Jaime Garcia 18

24 Sean Newcomb 14

44 Bartolo Colon 13

23 Lucas Sims 5

24 Matt Wisler 1

25 Aaron Blair 1

Number of games started by pitchers 24 years old and younger – 20 of 128 (16 percent)

Obviously, with the new stadium, the Braves felt compelled to try and bring in older veterans to try and win in 2017. The plan was to let those veterans – Dickey, Colon and Garcia – bridge the gap until some of the young pitchers were ready. Newcomb and Sims have replaced Colon and Garcia in the rotation.

The Braves believed most of their top pitching prospects were still a ways away, and that we could see the talent bubble up a bit in 2018. That seems to be happening, as Luiz Gohara and Max Fried are in Triple-A, while Mike Soroka, Kolby Allard and Touki Toussaint are now in Double-A.

All five could be ready at some point in 2018. Add Kyle Wright, the first-round pick almost three months ago, as someone who could also come quickly next season. That’s six prospects on top of Newcomb and Sims, who could be 24 years old or younger and make starts for the Braves in Atlanta in 2018.

Let’s look now at the ages of the Atlanta pitchers and prospects at the start of next season:

43 – R.A. Dickey

27 – Julio Teheran

26 – Mike Foltynewicz

24 – Sean Newcomb

24 – Max Fried

23 – Lucas Sims

22 – Kyle Wright

21 – Luiz Gohara

21 – Touki Toussaint

20 – Kolby Allard

20 – Mike Soroka

So, with that in mind, should the Braves bring back R.A. Dickey? He’s been okay this season, but he’ll turn 43 before next season starts. The Braves could pick up his option for next season for $8 million or buy him out for $500k.

Should the Braves trade Julio Teheran? He’s under contract for two more seasons ($8 million in 2018 and $11 million in 2019) along with a $12 million team option for 2020. That’s very affordable, but will the Braves need his rotation spot for a younger pitcher? Would they be better off trading Teheran this winter to open another opportunity for a starter?

Teheran has turned into the modern-day Zane Smith – a pitcher who failed to live up to great potential. The Braves hung onto Smith too long, and by the time he was traded they did not get good value from the Expos. The Braves have hung onto Teheran too long, and he too will likely not bring back good value once he’s traded, at least compared to what the Braves may have gotten for him last year.

Smith was 28 when he was traded in 1988. Teheran will turn 27 next January.

There’s been a lot of talk that the Braves should go after a young, controllable pitcher. They liked Sonny Gray, but he went to the Yankees instead. They’ve inquired about Tampa Bay’s Chris Archer, but the Rays wanted half the farm system. Detroit’s Michael Fulmer has even been mentioned, which is weird since the Braves may have several young pitchers with greater potential than Fulmer.

The Braves should not do that. Instead, they should give their own kids a chance. They’ve invested time and money into this rebuild by stressing pitching. Trading a bunch of prospects for someone else’s young arm would negate much of the progress that has been made.

What if the Braves do what general manager Bobby Cox did 1989, which was the fourth year of his rebuild? What if they go with the young pitchers? Cox had his Braves full of young starters, and 76 percent of the games started that season were by pitchers 24 years old and younger.

Only 16 percent of the games this season have been started by the younger pitchers. That’s only 20 games. So, this year’s Braves rotation is anything but young, even with Colon gone to bring down the average age.

Gohara and Fried will likely be brought up once Gwinnett’s season is over next week. We’ll see if the Braves get both a start before the end of the season. Allard and Soroka were pushed to Double-A at 19 years old and have thrived. They both could be ready by midseason next summer, even though they’ll be a few weeks away from their 21^st birthday.

Now, it’s unlikely the Braves would come out of spring training with Foltynewicz, Newcomb and Sims as their top three starters. That would mean they would not pick up Dickey’s option and trade Teheran. Either Dickey or Teheran will likely be back to be part of the rotation.

Let’s say the Braves trade Teheran and bring back Dickey. He would then join Foltynewicz, Newcomb and Sims in the rotation. Then they could maybe bring in a veteran to spring training as a backup option for the rotation, but Gohara and Fried could then battle it out for the fifth starter’s spot.

If they truly believe Allard and/or Soroka could be ready by the All-Star break, then why would they need another veteran? Even if one was ready at some point in 2018, they could push Dickey out as long as Foltynewicz, Newcomb, Sims and either Gohara or Fried are doing well.

Here’s one point about all of this… there is still a lot of patience required. You think we’ve had to be patient so far? Just think if several additional young pitchers go through what Foltynewicz and Newcomb have been through. It’s not like these kids are guaranteed to come up and immediately be All-Stars. Usually, it takes time for kids to develop and get better, even after they graduate to the big leagues.

The Braves went with young pitchers in 1988 and 1989, the middle years of that rebuild. The fruits of that labor were not seen until 1991, but there was little doubt the commitment to the young pitching made a difference. Will the Braves do that again, or will the pressure of getting a better record make them panic and go get more veterans?

This story was originally published August 28, 2017 at 11:30 AM with the headline "Braves’ rotation should get younger, not older."