December Delirium: It feels like the playoff actually starts Saturday

The College Football Playoff field of four won’t be set until after Saturday’s slate of games.

But this week of conference championships certainly has a playoff feel to it.

No, a bracket hasn’t been set yet. But games featuring eight of the AP’s top 10 teams will decide admission into the playoff. While the selection committee hasn’t convened to reveal this week’s rankings yet, the top 10 should resemble the AP’s, but perhaps in a slightly different order.

Here are this week’s games featuring teams in the AP top 10:

▪  ACC Championship: No. 1 Clemson vs. No. 7 Miami.

▪  Big 12 Championship: No. 2 Oklahoma vs. No. 10 TCU

▪  Big Ten Championship: No. 3 Wisconsin vs. No. 8 Ohio State

▪  SEC Championship: No. 4 Auburn vs. No. 6 Georgia

(Not mentioned is the Pac-12 Championship between No. 11 USC and No. 14 Stanford on Friday. It is well understood that the winner of this game won’t have a chance at a playoff berth.)

To start, the winner of the SEC Championship will get in. The same applies to the ACC Championship. These two games have quite the bracket-like feel to it.

The other two games are what could cause incredible ease or chaos to the College Football Playoff selection committee.

If Oklahoma wins, it is in. If it loses, it is among a slew of two-loss teams, which would include a Big 12 champion in TCU. Could TCU then vault all the way up from No. 10 to the top four? And the same applies to the Big Ten Championship. If Wisconsin wins, it is obviously in. If Ohio State, an early 5.5-point favorite, wins, the Buckeyes may state a case for admission to the playoff.

From there, the committee would have quite the discussion before deciding who gets in and who is left out.

The hypothetical two-loss conference champions

Auburn: Auburn is in with a win. While it would have two losses (against No. 1 Clemson and No. 17 LSU), it would have beaten Georgia and Alabama when ranked No. 1, with an additional rematch victory over No. 6 Georgia. No other team would boast that kind of resume.

Ohio State: If the Buckeyes defeat the Badgers, they would be Big Ten champs with losses to Oklahoma and Iowa. But losing to Iowa 55-24 sticks out like Kanye West walking into his local Target to purchase Taylor Swift’s new album. No other team in consideration, in this hypothetical scenario, has that kind of defeat on its slate.

TCU: The Horned Frogs are victims of losing two games in three weeks late in the season – Iowa State on Oct. 28 and Oklahoma on Nov. 11. But could TCU jump all the way from No. 10 to No. 4 with a win? It seems like a big leap but the committee does claim to value conference champions. If chaos ensues, perhaps a Big 12 title could weigh heavily in the committee’s consideration.

The hypothetical two-loss at-large teams

Clemson: With a loss, Clemson could potentially make a case over Ohio State and TCU. Both the Buckeyes and Horned Frogs lost to teams that finished the regular season unranked. The Tigers would have the same, with a three-point loss to Syracuse in a game quarterback Kelly Bryant was injured. Its only other loss would be in the ACC Championship. Clemson also holds a resume-boosting win over Auburn.

Oklahoma: If TCU upsets Oklahoma and a spot remains open, perhaps the Sooners could still state a case for admission. Oklahoma does have a win over Ohio State and would have split its two-game series with TCU. Oklahoma has three wins over top-25 teams this season.

Georgia: Unfortunately for Georgia, there is no way it gets in with a loss to Auburn. If it drops two games to the Tigers, it is a clear indicator that it doesn’t belong, even with the Bulldogs having good wins against No. 15 Notre Dame and No. 24 Mississippi State.

Miami: OK, there is one loss worse than Ohio State’s to Iowa. And that’s Miami’s loss to Pittsburgh. And as a result, it wouldn’t be in contention for a playoff spot by losing to Clemson.

Wait, there are at-large teams that could have only one loss?

Wisconsin: The Badgers are the lone undefeated team from a Power 5 conference. But boy, their schedule looks weaker than Russia’s economy. Wisconsin’s best non-conference win was over Florida Atlantic. Its best overall win was over No. 20 Northwestern. If Ohio State beats Wisconsin, it will be incredibly tough to include the Badgers in the playoff.

Alabama: The fifth-ranked Crimson Tide are the lone one-loss Power 5 team not to play for a conference championship. While this year’s Alabama team doesn’t look as dominant as recent squads, it does have wins over No. 17 LSU, No. 24 Mississippi State and No. 25 Fresno State. In addition, Ohio State got into last year’s playoff as a one-loss team without a conference title. So there is a precedent for this sort of thing. If chaos takes place this weekend, it would be quite difficult for the selection committee to leave out Nick Saban’s team in the field of four.

With all of that in mind, you can bet selection committee chairman Kirby Hocutt and company will be hoping for a chalk sort of weekend followed by an easy selection process.

This story was originally published November 27, 2017 at 9:56 AM with the headline "December Delirium: It feels like the playoff actually starts Saturday."