Georgia or LSU? Our predictions on who has the edge in SEC championship game
Georgia players walked around in clusters Friday afternoon at the Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta. Each position group looked around while receiving tips from their coaches ahead of Saturday’s game.
That sign of team unity is broken down into subsets, and the victor’s position groups must perform well individually. Less than 24 hours remain before the SEC Championship contest against No. 2 LSU (12-0), and each team has advantages in areas over the other. At least on paper, that’s the case.
Prior to the 4 p.m. kickoff, let’s break down those position battles.
Quarterbacks
The stats pretty much speak for themselves on this one. Jake Fromm has been solid for the majority of the season, but what Joe Burrow has done is nothing short of historic.
The LSU signal caller has completed over 78% of his passes for 4,366 yards. He’s thrown for an eye-popping 44 touchdowns compared to just six interceptions.
Fromm hasn’t been bad by any stretch, with a 62% completion rate and a 21-3 touchdown to interception ratio. But Burrow, who to be fair has a deeper, more talented and experienced group of receivers, has been carving up secondaries with big plays all year.
If this game turns out to be a close contest like many expect, either quarterback could be asked to go make plays to win the game. Burrow has been able to do that with much more consistency than Fromm this year.
Edge: LSU
Running backs
This game features arguably the two best running backs in the conference in Georgia’s D’Andre Swift and LSU’s Clyde Edwards-Helaire.
The Tiger back has the edge in yards (1,233-1,203), rushing touchdowns (16-7) and yards per carry (6.8-6.2). He is also used more in the passing game than Swift, with 43 catches to Swift’s 21.
Where the Bulldogs have an advantage, though, is in depth. Georgia’s top three backs all have at least 50 carries, with James Cook adding in another 23 carries and 15 receptions. LSU’s backfield rotation, meanwhile, consists mainly of Edwards-Helaire and Tyrion Davis-Price.
Swift and Edwards-Helaire will both be focal points of their respective offenses. But in what promises to be a physical game and with Swift nursing an injured shoulder, give the slight advantage to the team with more depth.
Edge: Georgia
Receivers/tight ends
The discrepancy in these groups for both teams is by far the biggest advantage in this game.
George Pickens, Georgia’s leading receiver in yards and touchdowns, is suspended for the first half for fighting against Georgia Tech. Fromm’s second favorite target is Lawrence Cager, who is out for the game due to an ankle injury suffered in practice last week.
Of the receivers who will play the entire game for Georgia, it takes nine of them to surpass the yardage total of LSU leading receiver Ja’Marr Chase (1,457). His teammate Justin Jefferson is also over 1,000 yards, and four other Tigers have at least 250 yards receiving on the year.
Generating separation is something Georgia’s receivers have struggled with all year, even with Cager and Pickens on the field. Meanwhile, the Tigers have been running free in the secondary and making big plays all season long. The contrast is stark, and that will show on the field Saturday afternoon.
Edge: LSU
Offensive line
Georgia’s offensive line heard all offseason that they were the best unit in college football. While they might not have quite lived up to that label, they’ve still performed well this season.
The Bulldogs have surrendered just nine sacks all season, one-third of the amount LSU has allowed on Burrow. Despite some run blocking struggles the Bulldogs still average 5.2 yards per carry, just a shade more than LSU’s five.
The keys to this game are different for each offensive line. Georgia needs to use its size to lean on LSU and generate space in the running game, while the Tigers will have to keep the Bulldog pass rush at bay to give Burrow time to make plays down the field.
It’s close, but give the big boy battle to the Bulldogs.
Edge: Georgia
Defensive line
Ed Orgeron, being the defensive line guru he is, called Georgia senior defensive tackle Tyler Clark “dominant.” Each coach understands the importance of winning the line-of-scrimmage, but Georgia might have the edge up front on both sides. Defensively, that might be the first time it can be said in an SEC title game during the Kirby Smart era.
Georgia has immense depth amongst its front, and it shines brightest on the line. That group changes on each down with a variety of influential players from freshman Travon Walker to senior Michael Barnett appearing on the stat sheet.
That depth plays a part each week in the SEC, and it will especially with the Bulldogs’ season on the line.
Edge: Georgia
Linebackers
Those who have watched LSU see its linebacking corps as the biggest area of improvement throughout the season. But things have looked different for the Tigers with exhausted eligibility for Devin White and an ineligible Michael Divinity.
Georgia, however, has stayed consistent and healthy from its pass rushers to inside linebackers. Junior Monty Rice leads the way for Tae Crowder and freshman Nakobe Dean to man the inside while it’s rotations galore for the edge rushers — Jermaine Johnson, Nolan Smith, Azeez Ojulari and more.
Bulldogs win this one, and for a similar reason as the last. A lot of options.
Edge: Georgia
Secondary
For LSU, this is where Burrow can pick its opponent apart. Although it has been shored up, Georgia’s secondary is vulnerable for explosive plays without a dominant force. Senior J.R. Reed handles signals for the unit with a plethora of young players around him — most notably Eric Stokes, DJ Daniel and Tyson Campbell at cornerback. Georgia finds its weakest link within its defensive backfield while also only forcing six interceptions and seven lost fumbles.
The Tigers, known historically for a strong secondary, has a similar feel entering Saturday’s game. LSU’s top four defensive backs have combined for 12 interceptions — Derek Stingley leads the way with four. He’s complimented by the potentially high-rated NFL prospects Grant Delpit and Kristian Fulton. With Georgia being without Lawrence Cager and George Pickens (for a half), things suddenly tighten up for Fromm against this group.
Edge: LSU
Predictions
Jed May: 35-20, LSU
Brandon Sudge: 27-21 Georgia
This story was originally published December 6, 2019 at 5:22 PM.