Georgia Southern is a heavy favorite, but Georgia State is explosive

STATESBORO — As far as Georgia Southern head cooach Willie Fritz is concerned, last year’s game with Georgia State is history.

“We don’t talk about the 2014 Georgia Southern and Georgia State teams,” Fritz said when asked about last year’s 69-31 romp over the Panthers at the Georgia Dome. “We’re just concerned about this year.

“We don’t get into talking about past failures or successes.”

Fritz and the Eagles may not be talking or thinking about a game in which they ran for 613 yards and scored 10 touchdowns, all on the ground, but it has no doubt been on the minds of the Panthers.

If the Georgia State players haven’t had this rematch circled on their calendar, then they aren’t human.

No one wants to be humiliated the way they were by a Georgia Southern team that was on its way to a Sun Belt Conference championship. And, that’s what it was, a total beatdown in the first-ever game between the state’s two newest FBS programs.

Georgia State (5-6, 4-3 Sun Belt) will get its shot at redemption at 2 p.m. on Saturday at Paulson Stadium in the final regular-season game for both teams.

Head coach Trent Miles’ team is the biggest surprise in the conference as it finds itself in a position to become bowl eligible with a win over Georgia Southern (8-3, 6-1).

Beating the Eagles, however, is going to be a tough task for Georgia State, which is in its sixth year of football.

Georgia Southern is coming off a 55-17 win over South Alabama in one of its most complete games of the season. It was a week after Georgia State beat the Jaguars, 24-10.

“I thought our guys played well,” Fritz said. “We didn’t come out of the box and play as well as we wanted to, but the defense gave up a total of 136 yards, and 75 of those were on the very first drive of the game.

“From that point forward, we played lights out.”

This will mark the final home game for 20 Georgia Southern seniors who will carry an 11-game home winning streak into the contest.

”They’re 28-2 at home for five years, 14-1 in the Sun Belt,” Fritz said. “They’ve had tremendous careers and obviously want to finish it out on a high note.”

Georgia Southern, Arkansas State and Appalachian State are theconference teams who are bowl eligible. The only teams with an opportunity this weekend to pick up that needed sixth win are Georgia State and South Alabama, which closes at Appalachian State. Both the Panthers (22 points) and Jaguars (16.5) are heavy underdogs.

The Eagles will learn their bowl assignment on Sunday, and it is anticipated they will play in either the Camellia Bowl in Montgomery, Alabama, on Dec. 19, or the Go Daddy Bowl in Mobile, Alabama, on Dec. 23. ESPN.com reported Wednesday that the Eagles are headed to the Go Daddy Bowl.

While Georgia Southern is a heavy favorite over the Panthers, who are on a three-game win streak, nothing is guaranteed.

That’s because of the prolific passing attack led by senior quarterback Nick Arbuckle, and a vastly improved defense.

Arbuckle passed for 368 yards and accounted for three touchdowns in Georgia State’s 31-21 win over Troy last week. He leads the conference in passing at 346.7 yards per game, which ranks sixth in FBS. Arbuckle also leads the conference in total offense at 339.3 yards per game. With 3,814 yards passing, he is 440 yards behind Sun Belt record holder Levi Brown of Troy, who finished his career in 2009 with 4,254 yards.

“The quarterback is excellent,” Fritz said. “He does a great job of getting back there in the pocket, and it’s hard to get to him. He’s got a good array of receivers.

“They’ve been running the ball pretty well the last few weeks with the tight end in the game. It makes their offense more difficult to defend, and defensively they really run well. They’ve got good speed on the defensive side. I’ve been impressed with the talent level.”

The Eagles counter with the top rushing attack in the nation, headed by junior running back Matt Breida, who had 187 yards last week, and now has 1,495 for the season, 10 more than last year. He needs 52 yards to move past Jermaine Austin (1,546) for the fifth best single-season mark. With 2,995 yards, Breidais ninth on the career list.

The Panthers defense held Troy to 81 yards rushing last week, and has held four straight opponents and five of its last six to 23 points or fewer.

Georgia State freshman Penny Hart is the leading receiver in the Sun Belt with 64 receptions for 966 yards, and junior Robert Davis (Northside) has caught a pass in 35 straight games. Davis has 2,375 career receiving yards, and senior Donovan Harden has 2,151 yards on 154 receptions.

By comparison, Georgia Southern has 49 completions.

“They’re going to get some first downs, they’re going to have times when they move the ball,” Fritz said. “We’ve just got to do a good job of staying over the top, not allowing a big play, make them drive the field, make it difficult on them.”

This story was originally published December 2, 2015 at 10:10 PM with the headline "Georgia Southern is a heavy favorite, but Georgia State is explosive ."