USA vs Mexico vs Canada: Who's Most Likely to Reach the World Cup Quarters?
While the Round of 32 is not done, it is for the three host nations of the 2026 World Cup, and the trio is moving onto the second round of the knockout rounds.
The United States of America, Mexico, and Canada all won their opening bracket play games, but they all did it in different ways.
The Canadians survived a dull performance with a last-minute goal against South Africa to secure them their first knockout round victory. The Mexicans broke down and bullied Ecuador in front of their ravenous home fans in Mexico City. And the USA, who appeared to have the easiest game of the three following a dominant first half against Bosnia-Herzegovina, had to find resilience following a controversial red card to star striker Folarin Balogun.
But which host has the best chance to make it to the quarterfinals?
Let’s rank them.
More news: Europe Can't Let Michael Olise and Kylian Mbappe Join Forces at Real Madrid
More news: Ranking the Final 32 Teams Remaining at the 2026 FIFA World Cup
3. Canada (vs. Morocco)
Canada has had a good tournament, but it’s going to take the best day in the country’s history to take down the reigning World Cup semifinalists. Going from South Africa to Morocco is like challenging a coyote before having to take on a hungry lion. Alphonso Davies playing and looking good in the second half against South Africa was important, but they are outmatched everywhere on the field against Morocco.
On top of it all, while the USA and Mexico will have gigantic home advantages in their Round of 16 game, Canada will have to play in America. It’s a true uphill battle for the Canadians.
2. USA (vs. Belgium)
In a world where Balogun could play, I’d probably have the Americans in the first spot. Belgium are beatable, and the USA attack has been phenomenal when the starters have played. The issue is that the amazing USA attack has been led by Balogun, and that when the team has tried to rely on Ricardo Pepi, he hasn’t capitalized on his chances.
Against Belgium, the USA might get one or two opportunities to win or lose the game with a single kick of the ball. If it was Balogun, I’d feel confident that he could convert those life-or-death moments. Pepi, however, hasn’t shown anything near the level yet to carry that responsibility. Chris Wondolowski had that career-defining moment 12 years ago in Brazil in the Round of 16 against Belgium and missed.
1. Mexico (England)
Every single game Mexico has played this World Cup has been messy. In the group stage, I thought that was because of the low-level of play and that, although Mexico’s defense was good, that it could be exploited. But after watching them shove Ecuador into a locker, it has become far more clear that the reason why these games are grimy are because Mexico has dictated it to be that way.
Mexico is going to execute on their chances when given to them, and on the other end, good look on getting through that backline and goalkeeper. England might be more talented per player than Belgium and even Morocco, but they were given a scare by DR Congo and needed Harry Kane heroics to win it.
In Mexico City on Sunday at the Estadio Azteca, it might be the biggest game in Mexican sports history. The altitude will be against the England, along with the crowd that will be keeping them up the night before the game with drums and hollering. The USA has a strong advantage playing in front of their fans, but it isn’t like when a team enters the Azteca to face Mexico.
2026 NEWSWEEK DIGITAL LLC.
This story was originally published July 2, 2026 at 12:34 AM.