Truist Championship Picks, Props, Predictions: Betting Ludvig Aberg, Rory McIlroy and Adam Scott
After a monster week from our prop betting shaman Cody Williams, who proved there's more to him than just props, the SI Golf betting panel is back with our favorite bets for the Truist Championship, the final tune-up before the second major of the season, the PGA Championship.
The SI Golf betting panel features Inside Sports Network Tap in Birdie podcast host Brian Kirschner, Betting analyst Brad Thomas, The Model Maniac Byron Lindeque, FanSided content director Cody Williams and, yours truly, Minute Media VP of Betting Content Brian Giuffra. Each Wednesday, we post our betting picks for outright and longshot winners, first-round leader, our favorite prop bet and a final score prediction. SI Betting insider Iain MacMillan is off another week for his honeymoon.
Cody was the hot hand last week, hitting Cameron Young FRL +2050 and Young Top 5 (incl ties) +225 at the Cadillac. It was Cody's first hit in a market outside of props, where he's up nearly 6 units on the season. Let's see if he and the rest of us can keep the hot streak going.
The Truist Championship is being played at Quail Hollow, host of the 2025 PGA Championship, won by Scottie Scheffler. It has a deep and talented lineup led by Rory McIlroy, who is playing for the first time since winning his second straight Masters. Young, a two-time winner this season, Matt Fitzpatrick, a three-time winner, and Xander Schauffele and Ludvig Åberg are also playing. Scottie is taking the week off.
Quail Hollow favors elite ball strikers who are long off the tee. There's a reason Rory has won here four times and Scottie won the PGA last year. It's also the reason why so many top players chose to skip last week's signature event at Doral and play here. It's a better comp to Aronimink, where the PGA is next week.
Let's jump into our picks with full breakdowns below.
Outright
Brian Kirschner: Rory McIlroy +600 (FanDuel)
I almost never do this. Very rarely do I bet someone below 8/1, but desperate times call for desperate measures. I truly think this is a really good price on Rory this week. Let's take a look at next week at the PGA, where he is currently +850. He is only 2.5 points lower with no Scottie, Rahm and Bryson on a course he has won four times. Coming off a win at The Masters, I trust he wants his game to peak next week, but he isn't magically going to be bad at golf this week. Won by five with a double on last in 2024, I see Rory going into the PGA with serious momentum.
Brad Thomas: Adam Scott winner without: Rory, Fitz, Young, Xander +2150 (DraftKings)
This week we are prioritizing length. At 45 years old, Scott is inside the Top 10 in driving distance. He's also been a massive gainer on approach. He had a massive Sunday last week. If his putter cooperates, he can contend. I like the favorites, but love this market without them.
Byron Lindeque: Matt Fitzpatrick +1700 (DraftKings)
Cody Williams: Ludvig Aberg +1800 (DraftKings)
The fact that a T21 at Augusta is Ludvig's worst showing in his last six starts speaks to how well he's been playing. But he has the complete game to compete at Quail Hollow. Over the last 24 rounds, he's fifth in SG: Tee-to-Green, fifth on approach, ninth in driving distance, 13th around the green and eighth in Bogey Avoidance. This is all lining up for a big week, especially with guys near the top of the odds board continuing to reel off victories.
Brian Giuffra: Ludvig Aberg +1800 (DraftKings)
When I was handicapping this event, I looked for elite ball strikers and distance off the tee. Aberg is 24th in driving distance, 20th in SG: App and 6th in overall proximity to the hole on the PGA Tour. He missed the cut at the PGA last year, which was his only appearance at Quail, but the comp courses suggest Aberg should thrive here. T4 in his last start at RBC and top 5 in four of his last five starts, he should be in top form for this tournament.
Longshot
Brian Kirschner: Ryan Fox +12500 (DraftKings)
Ryan Fox is a well established professional golfer and I trust him to play well this week at Quail. Two time winner on the PGA Tour and 4 time winner on the DP World Tour. He has had a solid season so far and I am really inspired by the ball striking last week. Gained almost four on approach and OTT. Was T4 after round one and the PGA last year and I see him getting along well this week.
Brad Thomas: Sudarshan Yellamarju +12000 (FanDuel)
Do I think a long shot will win? No. Do I think Yellamaraju is ready to take down a Signature Event? No again. He will be a winner on TOUR sooner than later and I do not want to be left behind. His game fits Quail really well. He pounds it off the tee, he's great with his long irons, and he can putt with the best of them. We saw him dazzle at Sawgrass. He can do more of the same here with far less water danger.
Byron Lindeque: Harris English +4900 (DraftKings)
Cody Williams: Alex Fitzpatrick +14500 (DraftKings)
I'm never afraid to play fast and loose with a longshot, and there's no reason Alex Fitzpatrick should be 145/1. His last three starts are a win in India, a win at the Zurich with Matt, and a T9 at Doral. He's third in SG: Tee-to-Green, first in SG: Off the Tee, ninth on approach and Top 30 in Driving Distance in the last 24 rounds. The putter can be ice cold (he lost over 3 strokes last week), but there's a lot of value in here. Just a word to drop to you: he's +500 for a Top 10 (incl ties) as well.
Byron Lindeque: Harris English +4900 (DraftKings)
T2 here at the PGA last year and T3 in 2023; perhaps I'm a year early, and English keeps the odd-year performances going. But I get a sneaky feeling he's going to compete again this week. He's great with his long irons (a must this week), is long and accurate off the tee and remains one of the best putters on tour. We'll need a spike week from him on approach, which he's shown he's capable of.
First-Round Leader
Brian Kirschner: Justin Thomas +5000 (Fanatics)
JT has had an up-and-down season since he came back at Bay Hill from an offseason injury. However, he has popped enough since to entertain a FRL play at the Truist this week. JT hit the ball very well last week. He only struggled with the putter, which I think he can flip this week. JT obviously won the PGA here back in 2017 and I think he can spike for a round here.
Brad Thomas: Ben Griffin +2700 (FanDuel)
Is Ben Griffin back? His driver looks to be cooperating and he had a massive week at Doral. He's still one of the leaders in SG: Total in round one, even with his rocky start to the season.
Byron Lindeque: Jhonattan Vegas +10500 (DraftKings)
Cody Williams: Adam Scott +3300 (DraftKings)
Adam Scott doesn't have anything close to an immaculate history at Quail, but his ball-striking is so good right now, and we saw him get white hot over the weekend at Doral. For a guy who's seventh in SG: Tee-to-Green and first in SG: Approach over the last 24 rounds, he just needs to putt decently to put himself atop the leaderboard. I like him better as a FRL shot than I do outright as a way to catch more lightning in a bottle.
Brian Giuffra: Maverick McNealy +3900 (DraftKings)
I hit a FRL chop with Mav earlier this year at the Players. Why not bring him back here on a course that profiles similarly? He's 10th on Tour in first-round scoring average and also has the length and putting ability to go low on this course. I don't see him sustaining for four rounds, but I could see him pop early again.
Prop Bet
Brian Kirschner: Xander Top 10 +106 (DraftKings)
All this guy does is finish Top 10, so I will bet on that happening on one of his favorite courses on Tour. Xander has finished runner-up here in his last two Truist Championships and I expect that to continue. I don't know if he is the right form to win right now, but I think he should safely hit this wager this week.
Brad Thomas: Ludvig Aberg Top 10 Including Ties +150 (DraftKings)
So, I've sucked at player props this season. Maybe it's been bad luck, or maybe I've just been overcomplicating things. Either way, I'm going a bit chalkier with this one. Outside of Rory McIlroy, Ludvig Aberg feels like one of the prototypical fits for Quail Hollow. He's not going to overpower it the same way McIlroy can, but he's going to put himself in the middle of the fairway more often than not. He has been nothing but a top-10 machine over his last five starts, with four top-five finishes and his lone "poor" outing coming at the Masters, where he still finished T21. I'm betting top 10 with ties and expecting a big week from the Swede.
Byron Lindeque: Rickie Fowler Top 20 +115 (BetMGM)
Cody Williams: Rory McIlroy and Xander Schauffele Top 10 incl ties +230 (DraftKings)
At the risk of oversimplifying things, McIlroy and Schauffele are first and sixth, respectively, in SG: Tee-to-Green over the last 24 rounds. Rory has two wins in his last three starts at Quail (non-major editions), while Xander has two runner-up finishes in his last two starts here. Why not parlay them together to comfortably finish in the Top 10? And based on how my props have been going in regular stroke play events, maybe bet one of them to win as I was on Fitzpatrick at Heritage and Cam Young last week.
Brian Giuffra: Si Woo Kim Top 10 incl. Ties +184 (DraftKings)
While I'm wary of Kim winning, I do think he'll be at or near the top of the leaderboard. He has finished T10 or better in five of 11 starts this year, so these are actually good value odds. Kim was T8 at the 2025 PGA Championship held at Quail Hollow and T16 when the Wells Fargo was hosted here in 2024. His game off the tee was strong last week at Doral. If his approach shots get dialed and he keeps putting well, I feel good about his chances to cash this.
Winning Score
- Brian Kirschner: -16
- Brad Thomas: -16
- Byron Lindeque: -13
- Cody Williams: -18
- Brian Giuffra: -17
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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This story was originally published May 6, 2026 at 6:00 AM.