Is DeSantis toast? Not months before votes are cast. How he can bounce back vs. Trump | Opinion
Can a presidential candidacy be declared futile six months before real voting begins?
The short answer is yes, if current poll numbers are sparse and there seems no plausible avenue for progress. I have no problem concluding that Asa Hutchinson, Doug Burgum, Will Hurd and a few others simply will not be the Republican nominee when the party gathers for its convention one year from Saturday.
But what about Ron DeSantis? Can he be ruled out as well for failing to eat into Donald Trump’s massive poll lead just seven weeks after officially announcing? You might think so, to hear some of the summer’s breathless analysis, fueled as it usually is by hot takes from people who want to seem as if they know what they’re talking about.
As Trump dominates among Republican voters in national polls, with numbers hovering near 50%, and DeSantis usually at least 30 points behind, the “DeSantis is toast” declaration comes from both Republican detractors and admirers. The critics are mostly those fused to Trump, seeking to extinguish what might be his only plausible threat. But there are DeSantis fans throwing in a few towels, and that’s where lessons from history can be helpful.
Is this everyone’s first campaign? Doesn’t everyone know that primary results are almost never predictable from polls a half-year out? Sure, Trump had a lead in the late summer of 2015, but his second-place challenger in mid-August was Jeb Bush, who would soon deflate as Ted Cruz and Ben Carson gained steam.
As November began, Carson pulled even with Trump in some polls before sliding by month’s end, leaving Cruz as the prime rival, with Marco Rubio and John Kasich lagging.
The short lesson is that actual primary results are the driving factors that tend to lift some campaigns and hinder others. Nothing was likely to jostle the basic complexion of this race in the summer, and fall should be no different.
Trump and his base declare DeSantis dead as a campaign tactic. Impatient fans of the Florida governor have grown dispirited because their guy did not catch fire right out of the starting blocks.
Well, why should he have? Trump still enjoys the broad support of millions of voters wishing to unite in opposition to what they feel are politicized prosecutions. Some may be using early polls as a chance to deliver that message even though they may ultimately vote for someone else in the primaries.
The DeSantis campaign hopes that’s a lot of people. If it’s not, Trump will breeze to the nomination before too many 2024 calendar pages are flipped. But it’s far too early to suggest that is a lock.
As the 2023 holidays come and go, Republican voters will be less consumed with Trump’s ongoing court challenges and more focused on the only question that matters: Which candidate offers the best chance to beat Joe Biden?
If a sizeable chunk of 2016 and 2020 Trump voters crave a continuation of his policies but are concerned about his electability, the more disciplined Desantis could prove tempting, especially since he could seek a second term in 2028, which Trump could not, and will not turn 80 in the White House.
But these are huge ifs. The Trump base shows no sign of cracking, and ultimately, it’s a math issue. Trump can win the nomination without a single DeSantis voter, but DeSantis needs to peel off half of Trump’s support. That’s a steep hill to climb.
Months of volatile news cycles lie ahead, though, and professing certainty in July has not proved rewarding in past years leading up to primaries. That said, the odds for DeSantis may be even longer if the “Trump is not electable” theme starts to take on water.
Yes, Democrats will unite in force to attempt to beat him a second time. And yes, there is logic behind the belief that DeSantis offers many Trump positives without the trademark Trump negatives. But history again provides valuable context. In the sharply divided America of 1968, Richard Nixon won without much need for the independents and suburban moms everyone says Trump cannot win without. And in 1972, Nixon won a landslide with an appeal that Trump can also draw on: the promise of restraining the radical agenda of the other party.
Doubts about Trump’s general election prospects come mostly from people who have never liked him. DeSantis needs those doubts to spread to millions of voters who loved every day of the Trump presidency but fear that he cannot win again.
That’s a long shot, but it’s premature to suggest it’s impossible.
This story was originally published July 15, 2023 at 6:21 AM with the headline "Is DeSantis toast? Not months before votes are cast. How he can bounce back vs. Trump | Opinion."