ERICKSON: Demographics are not destiny

Starting shortly after Richard Nixon’s re-election campaign in 1972, political analysts began muttering that the days of the Republican Party were coming to an end. The reason was demographics. As black and Hispanic voting numbers continued to rise in the country, the Republicans were a party destined for oblivion.

But demographics is not destiny and events do change things. Even now, some of the foremost minds in Democratic Party strategy, who once thought we were on the verge of a blue tide in perpetuity, are starting to fret about a realignment of voters that sees middle class white and Hispanic voters going Republican.

The problem is that there is no such thing as a permanent political majority. Just ask Karl Rove how that permanent Republican majority after 2004 worked out. Likewise, anyone with a sense of history knows that events do, in fact, change things.

Last year, few saw the coming storm of Hillary Clinton’s emails. Using a private server, she attempted to conduct government and personal business on one device. Even Sarah Palin, Alaska’s former governor, kept a personal device separate from her government device while campaigning for vice president in 2008. That Hillary Clinton could not and that she would not apologize has hurt her.

In fact, even Democratic strategists are appalled at the bungling of Hillary Clinton’s campaign. The campaign refused to apologize, declared there was nothing to apologize for, and then polled on it and forced Clinton to issue an apology that even the talking heads on MSNBC called “ham-fisted.” Events change things.

Should Vice President Joe Biden get into the Democratic race -- a race that by design was supposed to lead to the coronation of Hillary Clinton -- he probably cannot stop the coming coronation. He will have to raise staff and money all while trying to get on the ballot in 50 states. Clinton and Biden would engage in a primary slug-fest wiping out most of Clinton’s campaign cash designated for her primary. Because the Democrats were so convinced they would never lose again they did not move up their 2016 convention like the GOP did. Consequently, Clinton cannot start spending her general election money until late August.

The Clinton camp is banking on one thing. They presume that once it is clear she is the nominee all Democrats everywhere will rally. But Democrats, like Republicans, will occasionally realize their candidate is so flawed that they just do not show up to vote. Whether they do or not, however, is beside the point.

Democrats are presently running a nomination contest with three old white people, none of whom speak Spanish. The GOP’s front runner right now may spend a lot of time talking about Mexican rapists, but few outside his core supporters expect him to be the GOP nominee. Of the remaining candidates, a significant number speak Spanish. Two are Hispanic. One is black. One is Indian-American. One is female. For a party routinely attacked for a lack of diversity, it is putting up a more diverse crowd than the Democrats.

Events change things. No president, since World War II, has seen his party hold the White House after two terms except Ronald Reagan. Middle class Hispanic voters and middle class white voters are starting to turn to the GOP as female voters increasingly distrust Hillary Clinton.

Demography is not destiny and right now events are changing things in a way Democrats never expected. But again, there is no such thing as a permanent political majority.

Erick Erickson is a Fox News contributor and radio talk show host in Atlanta.

This story was originally published September 18, 2015 at 10:03 AM with the headline "ERICKSON: Demographics are not destiny ."