South Florida at biggest risk in 'below-normal' hurricane season
The start of Atlantic hurricane season is fast-approaching, and South Florida residents can currently expect "below-normal" activity.
The National Hurricane Center's tropical outlook early May 29 showed nothing in the Atlantic basin to be concerned about for the next two to seven days, though AccuWeather forecasters said that could change next week.
"The chance of development remains very low in the short term due to strong wind shear," said Alex DaSilva, Lead Hurricane Expert with AccuWeather. "However, as the shear relaxes, conditions could become more favorable for an area of low pressure to develop in the Gulf or the western Caribbean."
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Warm Gulf and southwest Atlantic waters could support tropical development close to Florida in early June, according to AccuWeather.
Florida residents shouldn't be concerned about the two tropical waves out there.
"The first waves that come off Africa are usually too far south, and there's often too much dry air and wind shear for them to develop," said Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather lead hurricane expert, via email. "There's no real concern with these early-season tropical waves."
Tropical rain and wind impact risks for May 29
"While we always monitor the tropics for potential threats, we'll be keeping a close eye on the central and eastern Gulf and the southwestern Atlantic," DaSilva said. "Climatologically, this region can experience early-season tropical development."
Meteorologists said May 29 the highest chance for tropical development would occur during the middle to latter part of next week, after the start of the Atlantic hurricane season on June 1.
"We will have to keep a close eye on the eastern Gulf or southwestern Atlantic for possible development during the first two weeks of June," DaSilva said via email May 27.
What are Florida's overall odds for 2026 hurricane season?
According to Colorado State University, there is a 74% probability that a named storm will pass within 50 miles of Florida's coast and a 21% chance that a major hurricane could do the same during the 2026 hurricane season. The climatological average is 86% for a named storm and 29% for a major hurricane.
How at-risk is South Florida this hurricane season? Look to the Keys
Of all the areas in Florida, Monroe County, home of the Florida Keys, has the highest hurricane potential for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, according to data provided by Colorado State University.
The university's 43rd annual seasonal hurricane forecast, released April 9, predicts a slightly below normal season, with 13 named storms and six hurricanes. Two of the hurricanes are forecast to become 111 mph Category 3 storms, or higher.
There is a 39% probability that a named storm will impact Monroe County, according to the forecast, with a 22% chance of a hurricane and a 12% chance for a hurricane of Category 3 strength or higher.
"We're basically like a little thumb sticking out into the ocean," Stephanie Hartman, communications director at the Florida Division of Emergency Management said during the recent National Hurricane Conference in Orlando. "That means we have no room for complacency."
An average hurricane season usually sees 14 tropical storms, seven of which become hurricanes.
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Sarah Perkel is a South Florida Connect Reporter for the USA TODAY Network's Florida Connect team. You can get all of Florida's best content directly in your inbox each weekday day by signing up for the free newsletter, Florida TODAY.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: South Florida at biggest risk in 'below-normal' hurricane season
Reporting by Cheryl McCloud and Sarah Perkel, USA TODAY NETWORK / USA TODAY
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This story was originally published May 29, 2026 at 12:15 PM.