COLUMN: No reason to panic
The number of cases of COVID-19 in Georgia is going up and the seven day moving average is going up as a result. Do not panic. There are reasonable explanations for what is happening.
The data shows a huge spike in cases on May 18. In fact, that day will now register the largest number of cases in a day, beating out the previous record of April 20. What makes May 18 so interesting, however, is that the days around it show no increase. It is anomalous.
I went digging for the explanation and talked to our public health officials and the governor’s office. What they tell me is that part of the issue is a resolution in a testing backlog. Many of those cases are not from May 18, but from earlier. Some of those have already been reassigned to the appropriate day. A week ago, I saw the number and it was listed as 989 new cases that day. As of this writing, it is 961.
But the number is still high so it cannot just be testing causing such a big jump. What public health officials tell me is that the issue is not just a backlog, but a ramp up of testing in both migrant worker communities and long term care facilities. Several nursing homes in Georgia are seeing renewed outbreaks of COVID-19. This time, however, protocols are in place to help minimize the spread of the virus from these facilities into surrounding communities.
The biggest issue, however, is an increase in testing of Hispanic immigrant communities. Many people in these communities did not want to come out of the shadows because of their undocumented status. Gov. Brian Kemp formed a team that has gone into these communities with Spanish speakers to tell the residents they do not need to fear deportation. We need to stop the spread of the virus. In their primary language, these residents are hearing how to stop the virus, what the symptoms are, and also reassured they will not be rounded up if they get treatment.
That proactive approach is paying dividends in stopping the virus in these communities. In Gainesville, Georgia., where the virus started spreading among Hispanic immigrants in poultry processing plants, the governor’s team educated the workers in Spanish, helped them get testing and treatment, and the results show the virus stopped spreading much sooner than anticipated.
Some people would criticize the governor for not deporting illegal aliens with the virus, but that would incentivize not getting treatment and increase the risk of spreading the virus. A proactive approach within Hispanic speaking populations has helped us turn the corner.
As of now, the IHME model shows Georgia will actually get over the virus faster than first projected, even with this recent spike. By Aug. 2, the IHME predicts Georgia will have just 18 new cases on that day. Likewise, an ABC News investigation has revealed Georgia is not seeing a surge in cases or an influx in new patients to hospitals with the virus. All of this is very good news.
Gov. Kemp is not going to get an apology from all the people who said he would have blood on his hands. But he followed the data and listened to the experts. The results speak for themselves. Georgia is starting to see economic signs of life sooner than other areas of the nation without the virus spreading. We should all be happy about this.
Erick Erickson is host of the Erick Erickson Show on News-Talk 940 WMAC