Analysts: Middle Georgia voters echoed state trends

As went Georgia, so went Middle Georgia.

Tuesday’s election results in many ways matched the previous midterm election in 2010, but the results but also showed how political parties are responding to changes in Georgia, analysts said Wednesday.

Turnout statewide averaged 49.9 percent of registered voters, compared with 51.8 percent in Bibb County and 50.8 percent in Houston County, according to figures from the Georgia Secretary of State’s Office.

The turnout also was about the same as it was in 2010, when it was 52 percent. That election also saw a Republican surge. Overall voting also paralleled past years, with Houston County continuing as a Republican stronghold and Democrats claiming Bibb County.

Eddie Causey, chairman of the Houston County Republican Party, said that based on polling, he was expecting at least some of the races to head for a runoff.

“I think it showed up at the polls that (voters) have concerns with the direction of things, and they think maybe Republicans offer them a better direction,” he said.

David Cooke, district attorney in the Macon Judicial Circuit, served as a statewide co-chairman of the Democratic Coordinated Campaign for Georgia. While the election did not go as Democrats had hoped, he said it offered positive signs for the future.

“It was the smallest margins (in) Republican victories statewide since 2002,” he said. “The state is moving in a more progressive direction. ... At the end of the day, we have moved the needle forward. We just didn’t move it as far in this cycle as we would have liked.”

Cooke said the election was not much different from other mid-term elections, which tend to favor the party not in the White House.

FEW YOUNG PEOPLE VOTED

Chris Grant, an associate professor of political science at Mercer University, said Tuesday’s voting shows an odd mixture of successes and failures.

“I think the Democrats did a great job of turning out nonwhite voters. But it is also the case that they did not appeal to white voters, and they weren’t able to get white women out,” he said. “At least, that’s what the exit polls show.”

Many of the voters Democrats appeal to the most simply stayed home. Grant said only about 10 percent of all voters under 30 showed up to vote, compared with about 18 percent in President Barack Obama’s last election in 2012. Moderate whites also stayed home, leaving Democratic Senate candidate Michelle Nunn with perhaps a quarter of the white women’s vote and a fifth of white men’s votes.

While Georgia’s demographics continue to shift in ways that should favor Democrats, Obama got 47 percent of the vote in the state and Nunn got 45 percent, even with two more years of demographic change. Overall turnout favored Republicans, particularly with older groups.

“More than 50 percent of the electorate was over 50. That’s pretty telling,” Grant said.

Tom Ellington, an associate professor of political science at Wesleyan College, said voting percentages suggest many people who voted Tuesday cast ballots largely or entirely along partisan lines.

“It looks like there was not a lot of ticket-splitting going on,” Ellington said.

And with more Republican-leaning people showing up to vote, that was bad news for the Democrats.

Ellington said Democrats actually did a good job with turnout.

“I think the Democratic turnout operation was really strong and really impressive in terms of contacts made and things like that. In terms of the ground game, it was a very, very impressive effort, especially for a non-presidential year. It just wasn’t enough. I think the bottom line is Michelle Nunn and Jason Carter didn’t get it last night because it could not be done in this environment,” Ellington said.

And while Democrats failed to secure statewide seats Tuesday, they also lost an important House district. U.S. Rep. John Barrow, D-Augusta, has been the House’s last white male Democrat from the Deep South. He was ousted by Republican Rick Allen, who took nearly 55 percent of the vote.

Barrow had long defeated Republican attempts to beat him, even while his district voted strongly for Republican presidential candidates.

“Touch district and rough year for Democrats,” Ellington said. “(Barrow has) been right on the edge before.”

Grant said he was surprised by what happened in Barrow’s 12th Congressional District, which includes Dublin.

“It looks like he got hit by an older, white electorate that was Republican,” he said.

WHAT THE FUTURE HOLDS

Both Ellington and Grant said they expect Georgia could become a contested state for the 2016 presidential election, which will draw more voters to the polls.

Ellington said he expects Georgia Republicans will be on their guard in the next big election cycle and won’t let Democrats sneak a win.

“I think the future still sees some movement toward the Democrats. This was always a reach for when Georgia will be in play,” he said. “But 2016’s going to be a larger, different electorate.”

Al Tillman, a Macon-Bibb County commissioner, said Democrats will have to work to rebuild their base and unify. Bibb County Democrats have been split by turmoil within the organization, while statewide the party must find ways to reach rural white residents and energize younger voters, perhaps through social media.

“We’ve got to mobilize and include everybody,” Tillman said.

State Sen. David Lucas, D-Macon, said Republicans “used Obama” to tie the state’s Democratic candidates to negative perceptions of the president, which he said are unfair.

In an email Wednesday, state Rep. Allen Peake called for Republicans to strengthen their party by improving outreach to minorities.

“It is time to clearly recognize that we must do a better job as Republicans connecting with minorities in our state,” he wrote. “Our message -- better education through innovative ideas like charter schools, economic opportunities for those who seek it, individual freedom for our citizens -- should resonate across cultural and racial lines, and we must be vigilant to expand our base. We clearly have a better agenda than Democrats.”

To contact writer Wayne Crenshaw, call 256-9725. To contact writer Mike Stucka, call 744-4251.

This story was originally published November 5, 2014 at 7:36 PM with the headline "Analysts: Middle Georgia voters echoed state trends ."