Chile's birth rate falls to historic low, raising concerns

SANTIAGO, Chile, June 2 (UPI) -- Chile has recorded a historic decline in births, with the birth rate falling 46.9% over the past 32 years and the total fertility rate dropping below one child per woman for the first time, raising concerns about long-term population replacement.

According to the National Statistics Institute, or INE, report "Demographic Overview of Chile," the number of births declined to 146,446 in 2025 from 275,916 in 1993. The average number of children per woman last year fell to 0.99 live births, a 59.4% decrease from 1993.

At the same time, the share of births to foreign mothers has increased significantly. Between 2017 and 2025, the proportion nearly tripled, rising to 19.7% of live births from 6.9%.

"These are concerning figures. Chile is the most aged country in Latin America, with one of the region's highest life expectancies at 81.5 years, comparable to Canada," public health specialist Claudia Rodriguez, head of the Public Health Department at the University of the Andes, told UPI.

"As a result, Chile is beginning to display the demographic characteristics of a developed country without being one, and the country could soon reach a point where deaths outnumber births," she said.

Sara Parada, director of obstetrics at Andres Bello University, said the decline reflects a combination of social, economic, cultural and institutional changes.

"Women are making reproductive decisions in a more informed environment. Greater female participation in higher education and the labor market has contributed to delaying motherhood," she told UPI.

She said additional factors include the high cost of raising children, uncertain or unstable employment conditions, and limited support from partners in caregiving responsibilities.

"There has been a significant cultural shift. Motherhood is no longer viewed as an obligatory path for all women, but as an autonomous and informed decision that coexists with other life goals," Parada said.

"That in itself is not negative. The problem arises when people who do want children do not find the material, labor, family or institutional conditions needed to have them."

Parada noted that Chile's situation is not unique and reflects a broader trend across Latin America and the Caribbean.

"Fertility has been steadily declining across the region. According to the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean, fertility reached 1.8 children per woman in 2024 and has remained below the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman since 2015," she said.

"In 2024, 76% of countries and territories in the region recorded fertility rates below that threshold."

She said Costa Rica registered 1.32 children per woman, Uruguay 1.40 and Argentina 1.50.

Uruguay's birth rate continues to decline. The country recorded about 50,000 births in 2016, but the figure fell to 29,000 within a decade. The National Institute for Educational Evaluation estimates the number of students will decline by 25% by 2045.

"In less than 10 years, Argentina's birth rate has fallen 40%. The countries facing the most severe fertility crises in the region are Uruguay, followed by Chile and then Argentina," family specialist Lorena Bolzon told Argentine newspaper La Nacion.

Parada said Chile stands out not only for having one of the region's lowest fertility rates, but also for the speed of the decline.

Analysts warn that a sustained drop in births could have significant long-term consequences by reducing the future working-age population, potentially affecting labor availability, productivity and economic growth unless accompanied by adaptation policies.

"It also increases the proportion of older adults relative to the active population, placing greater pressure on pension systems, healthcare spending and long-term care services," Parada said.

She said governments should not focus solely on encouraging births, but instead adopt comprehensive measures that support families, including access to child care, work schedules compatible with family life and financial assistance for raising children.

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