UAE bristled at Saudis for years before Iran war tipped scales

The United Arab Emirates' worsening rift with Saudi Arabia was at the heart of its shock decision to quit OPEC.

The rivalry has been building for years but it was the fallout from the U.S. and Israel's war on Iran that provided the opportunity for Tuesday's announcement from the UAE, according to several people familiar with the matter. It was, one of them said, akin to ‘little brother' no longer wanting to be tied down by ‘big brother.'

Beyond quitting OPEC, the UAE is considering its membership of two regional bodies in which Saudi Arabia holds plenty of sway, according to some of the people, who asked not to be identified given the sensitivity of the matter.

While a final decision hasn't been made, Abu Dhabi may freeze its seat at the Cairo-based Arab League and take a similar move with the Jeddah-headquartered Organization of Islamic Cooperation, they said.

The UAE is also weighing its long-term involvement in the six-member Gulf Cooperation Council, they added. Abu Dhabi signaled its commitment to supporting the body on Wednesday, though Anwar Gargash, a diplomatic adviser to UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed, said earlier this week the organization is at "the weakest in history."

The country is reassessing the relevance of its role and contribution across multilateral organizations, though isn't yet considering withdrawals, a UAE official said Wednesday.

None of the three organizations exercise much in the way of hard power. Yet any exit would highlight the extent of the UAE's frustration with other Arab states, not least neighboring Saudi Arabia, over a perceived lack of solidarity in the face of regional military and economic challenges since the start of Israel's war on Hamas in 2023.

The UAE presented its exit from OPEC as an economic decision based on its future production needs. It can pump substantially more than it's allowed to under its quota and no longer wanted to ask the Saudis for permission to get closer to its capacity, according to a person familiar with the UAE's thinking. Furthermore, disruptions to global supplies caused by the closure of he Strait of Hormuz meant there would be no oil-price drop for now.

The Emiratis also believe oil demand will start falling amid the energy-transition sooner than the Saudis do, and want to monetize their reserves quickly because of that, one person said.

Even so, the decision was also the clearest signal yet that the country will no longer be shy about its ambitions and forging its own political and security alliances. That's even if they clash with those of Saudi Arabia, the biggest Arab economy and which sees itself as the leader of the wider Muslim world.

"We're building a different economic model and this requires a new political alignment and reconfiguration," said Nadim Koteich, an Emirati media and policy advisor to a number of UAE government entities.

The move by Sheikh Mohamed, commonly known as MBZ, marks the culmination of years of tension between him and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.

The two countries - key U.S. allies and each holders of more than $1 trillion of sovereign wealth fund assets - have clashed politically over civil wars and crises from Libya to Yemen and Sudan, backing different sides. Broadly, Riyadh has accused Abu Dhabi of supporting separatist groups, while the latter has been concerned by its rival's backing of Islamists.

They're competing more economically too, with the Saudis trying to turn Riyadh into a financial hub matching Dubai.

Rival alliances

For all the animosity, the UAE and Saudi Arabia are still aligned on many issues and are likely to maintain their trading relationship, with tens of billions of dollars of goods moving across their shared border each year. A UAE official said an unscheduled GCC meeting in Jeddah around the time of the OPEC announcement - attended by Abu Dhabi's foreign minister - was a step in the right direction, though they didn't give more detail.

Abu Dhabi's decision to leave the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries is expected to help solidify two emerging regional alliances. One is Saudi-led and includes Egypt, Pakistan and Turkey. The other comprises the UAE, Israel and India.

From India's perspective, the OPEC move looks like a political rebellion more than an economic step and could weaken Arab unity, according to officials in New Delhi.

"The UAE does not want to follow a Saudi-led or Turkey-led order," said Dania Thafer, executive director of the Gulf International Forum, a Washington-based think tank. "It sees itself as a middle power and a counterweight to the others."

The UAE began to seriously plot its exit from OPEC around November last year, according to people familiar with the country's thinking. But matters came to a head with disagreements over how best to respond to Iran's missile barrage during its war with the U.S. and Israel.

The UAE considered joining in with attacks on Iran, and pushed for United Nations approval to reopen the Strait of Hormuz - a critical waterway for oil and natural gas supplies - by force, an effort not supported by the Saudis. In contrast, Riyadh threw its weight behind diplomatic talks and back-channel mediations to end the conflict.

Israel ties

The UAE's growing closeness to Israel in terms of military and intelligence cooperation added to the tension, according to the people. Many Arab states see Israel as an expansionist, destabilizing force in the Middle East and blame it for pushing the U.S. to start the war with Iran.

"There's a split in the Gulf," said Hasan Alhasan, senior fellow for Middle East policy at the International Institute for Strategic Studies. "The UAE does not have the full support of the others in standing up to Iran."

The UAE hasn't joined the war, which is now in a fragile ceasefire, despite the damage Iran's attacks have had on Abu Dhabi's energy infrastructure and status as a haven for tourists and investors. Iran fired more missiles and drones at the UAE than any other Gulf state, adding to Abu Dhabi's anger.

During a discussion this month with European officials, MBZ expressed frustration with the collective reaction of neighboring states to Iran's attacks, according to people briefed on the matter, who asked not to be identified discussing sensitive matters. He pointed to divisions within the GCC and said it was dysfunctional, said the people.

The UAE would reinforce cooperation with the U.S. and Israel, he said.

Right moment

Gargash, the adviser to MBZ, said the failure of the Gulf countries' containment strategy for Iran before the start of the U.S.-Israeli campaign showed that organizations such as the GCC are not fit for purpose.

The group, made up of the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Oman, Qatar, Bahrain and Kuwait, "is the weakest in history, considering the nature of the attack and the threat it poses to everyone," Gargash said a day before the OPEC exit announcement.

The decision to move on from OPEC reflects the UAE's success at diversifying its economy beyond petroleum. It runs budget surpluses, meaning it can handle lower prices. The Saudi government fell into a deficit in 2023 and is expected to stay in one for several more years, though the continued closure of the Hormuz strait could change that by pushing up prices even more.

The economics of leaving OPEC were sound, said Koteich, and the UAE just needed "the political moment."

That was provided by the Iran war and the disruption to global energy supplies caused by the shutting of Hormuz, which has sent oil prices soaring to over $100 a barrel.

"It's not going to hugely impact the market - the market is under-supplied," UAE Energy Minister Suhail Al Mazrouei said of the OPEC decision in an interview.

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-With assistance from Anthony Di Paola, Salma El Wardany, Jorge Valero and Sudhi Ranjan Sen.

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This story was originally published April 29, 2026 at 10:10 AM.