China posts 5.0% Q1 growth, defying war concerns

April 16 (Asia Today) -- China's economy grew 5.0% in the first quarter, exceeding expectations despite concerns over the impact of the Iran conflict, official data showed Thursday.

The National Bureau of Statistics said gross domestic product rose 5.0% from a year earlier, topping the 4.8% forecast by economists surveyed by Reuters and Bloomberg.

The stronger-than-expected growth was driven by manufacturing and exports. Industrial production rose 5.7% in March from a year earlier, while retail sales increased just 1.7%, highlighting weak consumer recovery.

High-tech industries showed particularly strong momentum. Output in the sector rose 12.5% in the first quarter, with industrial robot production up 33% and integrated circuit output increasing 24%. Manufacturing accounted for about one-third of overall economic growth.

The impact of the Iran conflict has so far been limited. Bloomberg reported that China's efforts to bolster energy security, along with prolonged deflationary pressures, helped cushion the shock from rising oil prices. However, some effects were visible, including a 2.2% decline in refined oil production in March.

Domestic demand remains a key concern. Real per capita consumption rose just 2.6%, while wage growth slowed. The urban unemployment rate reached 5.4%, the highest level in a year.

Investment indicators were also weak. Fixed-asset investment increased 1.7% in the first three months of the year, while real estate investment fell 11.2%. Private investment declined for the first time outside the pandemic period.

Analysts said China's economy continues to show an "imbalanced structure," with growth driven by exports and manufacturing while domestic demand lags. Falling sales of automobiles, home appliances and furniture further point to soft consumption.

Policy responses are expected to remain measured. With growth exceeding expectations, pressure for large-scale stimulus has eased, and the government has set a relatively modest annual growth target of 4.5% to 5%.

Still, targeted fiscal support and cost-cutting measures are likely to continue to address rising energy prices and external uncertainties. Some economists also see room for monetary easing, including a possible reduction in banks' reserve requirement ratio.

-- Reported by Asia Today; translated by UPI

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This story was originally published April 17, 2026 at 6:02 PM.