Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz's waning popularity tests whether Democrats can separate themselves from fraud scandals

MINNEAPOLIS - Gov. Tim Walz won't appear on Minnesota ballots in 2026, but his declining approval ratings could still influence the political landscape Democrats face this fall.

The two-term Democrat's approval rating has fallen to 39%, a 10-point drop over the last year, according to the latest Star Tribune/KARE 11/Hubbard School of Journalism and Mass Communication Minnesota Poll.

Dissatisfaction has spread across most regions of the state, among independent voters and into parts of the Democratic coalition.

Walz's decline has coincided with rising concern about fraud in state-funded programs, an issue Republicans are already hammering as central theme in the 2026 campaign.

The question hanging over Democratic campaigns this fall is whether the fraud scandals remain Walz's burden alone or become a liability for the party as a whole.

"Clearly it shows that fraud is a salient issue," said Dan Hofrenning, a political science professor at St. Olaf College, noting that Walz did not appear at his party's convention alongside other DFL candidates last month.

It's not yet clear if the fraud attack will be nearly as potent against other Democrats, said former DFL Party chair Mike Erlandson. Republicans have sought to pin the fraud controversy on Attorney General Keith Ellison, who is running for re-election, and Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan, who is campaigning for the U.S. Senate.

The Trump administration has amplified the attacks, targeting both Walz and Ellison and announcing federal investigations related to the fraud cases.

"The challenge for all the candidates that are running this fall will be to articulate a message that resonates with the voters - that if they are given the opportunity, they are going to hold people accountable in Minnesota for the fraud," Erlandson said.

"People pay attention to things like fraud in a bigger way because it doesn't take much for people to translate that fraud into their taxes and their money."

A bigger red flag for Democrats is where Walz's support is eroding: among voters who backed the Harris-Walz ticket in 2024.

His support dropped 22 percentage points with those voters, suggesting the governor's struggles extend beyond hardening opposition from Republicans. Concerns about fraud are also beginning to dent confidence within the Democratic coalition itself.

Walz dropped his bid for a third consecutive term in January as attacks on the fraud crisis mounted.

"That speaks to the Democratic pressure and sense of urgency in getting Walz out of the race in December," said Democratic analyst and attorney Abou Amara. "Clearly there was indication that there was slippage with the base, that it wasn't just a red-blue fight."

Former GOP state Rep. Pat Garofalo said Walz's approval rating is among the lowest he's seen for a statewide DFL official in his lifetime. He said Walz's unpopularity and discontent over fraud could bode well for Republicans in down-ballot races, even as Trump is also underwater in the state.

"It does make you wonder if maybe ... we could avoid a trifecta and have divided government again, which would be good for Minnesota," he said. "Maybe the Dems aren't going to swamp the Republicans in Minnesota."

Walz's departure from the ticket removes a favorite Republican target. The attacks once aimed at him are now being redirected at other Democrats, with candidates arguing that DFL-endorsed gubernatorial candidate Amy Klobuchar would represent a continuation of existing problems rather than a fresh start.

"Amy Klobuchar would be a Walz third term," GOP governor candidate and House Speaker Lisa Demuth said recently. "Klobuchar cheered the government growth and was silent on fraud."

So far, many voters appear to separate Klobuchar from the controversies that have dogged Walz's administration. Half of Minnesota voters viewed Klobuchar favorably in the poll, well above Walz's 39% approval rating.

By choosing Klobuchar - who served in the U.S. Senate during the fraud crisis - Democrats have an opportunity to redirect the conversation away from past controversies and toward the future, Amara said.

The decline represents a dramatic shift in Walz's political standing. For most of his eight years in office, he was one of Minnesota Democrats' most valuable assets, with approval ratings that regularly topped 50% and reached a high of 65% in May 2020.

Walz helped lead his party to full control of government in the 2022 election and rose to the national ticket as the vice presidential nominee two years later.

But his approval dipped to 49% last summer after his failed vice presidential bid.

Other Minnesota governors have also struggled on their way out of office.

Former Republican Gov. Tim Pawlenty's approval rating bounced up and down during his final year in office as he explored a possible bid for president. As Democrat Mark Dayton was leaving the governor's office in 2018, 57% of Minnesotans said they were satisfied with his overall performance as governor, even if only 39% said they viewed him favorably as a politician.

Amara said in dropping his bid for a third term, Walz "very much made himself the poster child of the fraud issue."

"In many ways he's taking public accountability for the issue, and I think this poll may reflect that reality."

With less than a year left in office, it's unclear whether Walz can reverse his slide. For now, the poll suggests voters closely link accountability for the fraud crisis to Walz himself.

-Ryan Faircloth of the Minnesota Star Tribune contributed to this story.

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This story was originally published June 17, 2026 at 2:03 PM.