Minnesota Poll: Klobuchar leads all GOP candidates for governor

MINNEAPOLIS - U.S. Sen. Amy Klobuchar has a significant lead in the race for governor over her potential Republican opponents, illustrating the Democrat's continued strength as a statewide candidate in Minnesota.

The results of The Star Tribune/KARE 11/Hubbard School of Journalism and Mass Communication Minnesota Poll show Klobuchar polling well with independent voters, complicating Republican hopes to win the governor's race for the first time since 2006 by capitalizing on frustration with fraud in state government.

Klobuchar polled below 50% against two potential GOP rivals, however, suggesting some of the electorate is skeptical about extending DFL control of the governor's mansion and that Republicans have room to improve their standing with voters before the general election. Klobuchar is polling below her massive margins of victory in four past U.S. Senate elections.

The November election will decide the balance of power in St. Paul and the direction of the state for years to come. The GOP is hoping that voters will hand them a chance to govern because of high cost of living and lingering disapproval of Gov. Tim Walz, who dropped his bid for a third term amid the state's expansive fraud scandal.

Democrats are hoping that voters are fed up with President Donald Trump, the federal immigration crackdown in Minnesota and state GOP lawmakers blocking new restrictions on guns after the mass shooting at Annunciation Church and School.

The Minnesota Poll's findings are based on interviews with 800 Minnesota likely voters conducted from June 8 to 10. The poll's margin of sampling error is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

The poll also found Democrats have a leg up in the open race for U.S. Senate, though the field is much less settled as two Democrats and three prominent Republicans are running in the August primary.

In the race for governor, Klobuchar led three possible rivals: House Speaker Lisa Demuth, MyPillow CEO Mike Lindell and retired health care executive Kendall Qualls.

Qualls won the Republican endorsement in late May, but Lindell had long planned to run in the primary, and Demuth continued her campaign after raising questions about the accuracy of the electronic voting system at the party's convention in Duluth.

All three Republicans fared similarly against Klobuchar. Demuth polled the best, with 40% of voters supporting her compared to 48% for Klobuchar, though Qualls had statistically similar numbers. Lindell trailed with 36% to Klobuchar's 53%, showing his weaker standing with independents and Republicans.

Independents favor Klobuchar by wide margins in all three matchups, with at least 41% saying they'd vote for her over the Republican candidate. Qualls has the support of 21% of independents while 29% backed Demuth in the poll.

Sandy Steenerson, a retired nurse from Elk River who participated in the poll, said she plans to vote for Democrats in the fall. She was a lifelong Republican until Trump's first campaign in 2016. Now, she feels that the party is "corrupt" and elected Republicans are "yes men" for Trump.

While she said she's voted straight DFL tickets in recent years, she feels "kind of neutral" about Klobuchar.

"But if she's the best candidate, I'll vote for her," said Steenerson, 61.

While Klobuchar had a significant lead in the poll, it's nowhere near the level of support that propelled her to four Senate victories.

The poll found between 11% to 15% of voters surveyed were undecided in the race for governor, depending on the candidates.

Republicans have portrayed Klobuchar as a third term for Walz, saying leaving a DFLer in office would be a mistake when fraud ballooned when a Democrat was in charge.

Democrats in the poll by a significant margin said they were more enthusiastic about voting in the midterm election compared to Republicans and independents.

Many voters still do not know who Qualls, Lindell or Demuth are. Lindell has the most name recognition, but also by far has the worst favorability numbers of the three. Of those surveyed, more than four in 10 people reported an unfavorable opinion of Lindell, compared to only two in 10 who held a favorable view of him. Only 16% had an unfavorable view of Demuth.

Democrats have an early lead in the U.S. Senate race to replace retiring Sen. Tina Smith.

About half of voters polled said they would back a Democrat running for U.S. Senate while 41% said they would back a Republican. Importantly, Democrats had an edge with self-described independents.

The seat is seen as a crucial hold for Democrats eager to reclaim power in Congress this fall, though Republicans still have a chance to sway the roughly 10% of voters who are undecided about the race.

Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan is facing Rep. Angie Craig in the DFL primary, while Adam Schwarze will face Michele Tafoya and Royce White in the Republican primary.

The Minnesota Poll did not ask about head-to-head matchups in the Senate, but questions on name recognition and favorability shed some light on who might fare better on the ballot.

Among the Democratic candidates, Flanagan had a slight edge over Craig. Some 33% of voters polled said they have a favorable view of Flanagan, while 28% said they have a favorable view of Craig. A similar number said they had unfavorable views of the candidates, however, and many voters were neutral on the two.

Flanagan, the DFL-endorsed candidate, had a wider margin of support among those who voted for Kamala Harris in the 2024 election and with independent voters.

Den Gardner, a 74-year-old retired marketing professional in New Prague, said he would support Craig in the August primary, appreciating her "middle of the road" approach as he finds Flanagan more liberal than he is. He'll support Flanagan if she wins the primary, but he worries frustrations with fraud in state government might be a drag on her campaign.

"The last thing I want to see is the DFL lose that election because of that issue," he said.

In the Republican field, former sportscaster Tafoya had higher favorability than former Navy SEAL Schwarze. Among Trump voters, 8% held a favorable view of Schwarze compared to 33% for Tafoya.

Schwarze recently won the Republican endorsement over Tafoya, but 68% of all polled voters said they did not recognize his name.

Glen Renick of Eagan is a former Democrat who's willing to support "anybody that does not have a D behind their name."

For now, Renick, who considers himself an independent, is still undecided on which Republican he will back for Senate and governor and will make a decision closer to the primary based on his own research. He also said the GOP endorsement is not something he's factoring in to his decision-making.

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