Five ways Paxton's big win in Texas could backfire on Trump

WASHINGTON - Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton decisively defeated longtime Senator John Cornyn in Tuesday's Republican runoff for U.S. Senate, handing President Donald Trump a high-profile victory and giving Democrats the matchup they had long preferred in Texas.

While the result was a personal win for Trump, who endorsed Paxton at the 11th hour, it risks endangering Republicans' narrow Senate majority.

Here are five takeaways:

CORNYN IS NOW A WILD CARD

The endorsement of Paxton put Trump at odds with Senate Republican Leader John Thune and Senator Tim Scott, who chairs the Senate Republicans' campaign arm.

Unburdened by another reelection campaign, Cornyn for the remainder of his term this year could become another free agent like retiring Senator Thom Tillis of North Carolina, who blocked Kevin Warsh's nomination as Federal Reserve chair, or Senator Bill Cassidy of Louisiana, who lost a runoff in his state's primary and voted with Democrats last week to advance an Iran war powers resolution.

Cornyn now joins that group of senators, though it's unclear whether a former member of Republican leadership would buck Trump on his way out of office after tying his campaign closely to the president.

PAXTON HAS A MONEY PROBLEM

In his victory speech on Tuesday, Paxton implored supporters to donate through his campaign website, warning them that his opponent, state Representative James Talarico, will "raise more money than any Democrat in America."

The candidates' most recent financial reports showed Paxton with $2.3 million in the bank in early May and Talarico with $9.9 million on hand in early April.

In an internal memo last year, Senate Republicans' campaign arm warned that a Paxton nomination could "cause Republicans to divert hundreds of millions that would otherwise be spent winning key battlegrounds."

Now that Paxton's won, it's unclear where that money would come from. Senate Republicans' primary super PAC, Senate Leadership Fund, did not respond to a request for comment. Neither did MAGA Inc, Trump's $356 million super PAC.

"This is the wrong election to have someone who's as weak of a nominee as Paxton up against someone who's as strong a fundraiser as Talarico," one Texas political consultant said, predicting that ultimately, "MAGA Inc. will have to step in."

TEXAS IS GETTING MORE COMPETITIVE

Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia's Center for Politics shifted their ratings for the Texas Senate race from "likely Republican" to "lean Republican," validating the sentiment that Paxton is a weaker nominee than Cornyn.

Trump won Texas by nearly 14 points in 2024, but now Republicans will have to spend millions in what promises to be a bruising campaign to save what was once a safe seat.

A Talarico campaign memo released Wednesday frames him as "the best positioned candidate in a generation to win Texas." He described Paxton as "the most corrupt and damaged nominee in the modern Texas GOP," a reference to his felony indictment, Texas House impeachment, allegations of corruption and reports of extramarital affairs.

Paxton and his allies have signaled they will attack Talarico on culture-war issues, including his defense of transgender children, describing God as nonbinary, prior "non‑meat campaign" in which it purchased only vegan products and comments suggesting there are more than two biological sexes.

An ad released on Wednesday also seized on Talarico likening the border to a "front porch" with "a giant welcome mat."

OTHER SENATE BATTLEGROUNDS AT RISK

In the Senate, Republicans hold a 53-47 advantage, and Democrats would need to net four seats to win control.

Democrats are defending two states Trump won in 2024 - Georgia and Michigan - and targeting Republican-held states such as North Carolina, Maine, Ohio and Alaska.

Lauren French, a spokesperson for the Democratic group Senate Majority PAC, said Republicans will likely have a "tough conversation" over which battleground states they might need to divert resources from.

In North Carolina, former Governor Roy Cooper is running against former Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Whatley to succeed Tillis, who's retiring. And in Ohio, former Senator Sherrod Brown is challenging incumbent Republican Senator Jon Husted. Both races are considered toss-ups and will be key to whoever wins the Senate in November.

"Will it be less in North Carolina, where their candidate is already down?" French asked. "Less in Ohio, where they put an astronomical amount of money signaling their concern over Husted?"

PAXTON DOMINATED A LOW-TURNOUT RACE

Trump might see the Paxton victory as validation that he picked a winner, but the set of general election voters will be dramatically different from the narrow Republican runoff electorate.

Paxton benefited from a low-turnout runoff, winning fewer than 900,000 votes. That was well below turnout in the March Republican and Democratic primaries. More than 2 million Democrats voted, including over a million for Talarico.

Without Trump on the ballot, some voters could stay home in the fall or leave the top of the ticket blank as Talarico courts independents and more moderate Republicans.

(Reporting by Nolan D. McCaskill and Richard Cowan; Editing by Michael Learmonth and Cynthia Osterman)

Copyright Reuters or USA Today Network via Reuters Connect.

This story was originally published May 27, 2026 at 7:30 PM.