Houston growth slows, but passes 150,000 mark

Houston County’s growth isn’t what it used to be, but the county’s population pushed past the 150,000 mark and added far more people last year than any other Middle Georgia county, according to census estimates.

Census figures show most area counties lost population in 2015, and even Houston saw only a slight gain.

Of 14 counties, just four gained population, but nearly all of the changes were marginal. The estimates, recently released, were as of July 1, 2015.

Only Bleckley County changed by more than 2 percent. The county lost 551 people, which was a 4.3 percent decline.

Houston County, once a powerhouse of growth in not only Georgia but also the nation, gained 805 people, which was the most in the midstate by far. But that was only 0.5 percent growth, the slowest the once-booming county has seen since the 2010 census.

However, Houston inched closer to overtaking Bibb County in population. Bibb lost an estimated 197 people, for a population of 153,721. Houston’s total population is now estimated at 150,033. If the trends hold and the estimates are accurate, Houston could pass Bibb in the 2020 census.

Houston County officials often say the county’s public school system is a key driver of growth, and that was the case for Tamika Burnett and her family.

She and her husband, along with their son and daughter, moved to Houston County in 2013 to get out of what she said was a bad neighborhood in Macon. They had been living in the area off Pio Nono Avenue.

Initially they were just looking for a better location in Bibb County, but when they couldn’t find a home in their price range, they turned to Houston. Tamika Burnett said they haven’t regretted their decision, and her children have thrived in the Houston school system.

“That, in itself, has been a blessing since we moved here,” she said. “We feel like it’s the best decision we could have ever made.”

Estimates leave room for error

Although the census estimates are specific numbers, it doesn’t mean those should be taken as the exact population.

“You have to be careful about the census estimates, because they are, by definition, estimates,” said Greg George, director of the Center for Economic Analysis at Middle Georgia State University in Macon.

The estimates are based on births, deaths and migration. George said there are factors about how each are calculated, particularly migration, that leave room for error. Migration is determined from income tax forms and Medicare claims.

In the 2010 census, the actual numbers across all counties nationwide varied 3.1 percent from the population that was estimated, according to the U.S. Census Bureau website.

George said with the margin of error, it’s hard to know whether counties in Middle Georgia, aside from Bleckley, really did lose or gain population last year.

The Center for Economic Analysis uses research to provide assistance to business and governments. But George said the stagnant population numbers do not mean he would advise a developer against building an apartment complex or subdivision, because there are more factors involved in that kind of decision than just population.

In fact, a 200-unit apartment complex is currently under construction in Houston County adjacent to Central Georgia Technical College, while plans have been submitted for another complex on Houston Lake Road. Two others were also discussed at the Warner Robins City Council meeting Tuesday.

Bibb figures questioned

Pat Topping, senior vice president of the Macon Economic Development Commission, was skeptical of the calculation that Bibb lost population. He noted that one recent report showed the county gained 2,200 jobs in 2015. He also said downtown is blossoming, in part because of new loft apartments.

“In the last couple of years, the economy has started to pick up and things are happening,” he said.

Houston County Commission Chairman Tommy Stalnaker said he might have guessed Houston grew by about 1,200 people last year, based partly on school enrollment, but adding 805 people seemed in line with his expectations.

“I’m pleased there was growth at all,” he said, noting that building permits are up.

“There is still a lot of commercial growth,” he said.

Jones County lost 297 people, or 1 percent of its population, dropping from 28,791 to 28,494.

“I would have thought it would have been the exact opposite,” said County Commissioner Alton West. “I had no idea there is a decline.”

The county’s estimated population mostly has been stagnant since the 2010 census, going up slightly some years and down slightly in others. West said the key to changing that and getting the population on a positive path is jobs. Most Jones County residents, he said, work somewhere else.

“You are not going to work in Jones County,” he said.

West said he’s hopeful the county can lure some industry with a large tract of land it has set aside as an industrial park.

Meanwhile, Peach County is estimated to have lost a small number of people each year since 2010. It lost 108 last year, a 0.4 percent drop, dipping from 26,828 to 26,720 people, according to census figures.

Peach County Commission Chairman Melvin Walker said that didn’t especially surprise him. He also said having more jobs in the county is the key to reversing that trend.

“It’s just been real hard after the recession,” he said.

One project he hopes could bring more jobs is the effort to develop the barren section of Interstate 75 in Peach County.

Monroe County gained slightly, going from 27,056 to 27,103, an addition of 47 people, or 0.2 percent.

Growth statewide was estimated at only 1.2 percent. The state’s population rose from 10,097,132 residents in 2014 to 10,214,860 in 2015, a gain of only 177,728.

The most populous county in the state was Fulton County, which had 1,010,562 people, and grew by 14,099, or 1.4 percent.

Those who don’t care much for neighbors might want to consider a move to Taliaferro County, which checked in as Georgia’s least populous county. Only 1,639 people live there, and that number is dropping. The county lost 54 people, or 3.4 percent, the estimates show.

This story was originally published April 20, 2016 at 2:58 PM with the headline "Houston growth slows, but passes 150,000 mark."