More jobs and people are coming to Middle Georgia but challenges remain, experts say

The Macon area’s economy should slowly, yet steadily, improve this year while the Warner Robins area is expected to slightly outpace the Macon growth in 2019.

An analysis of Middle Georgia’s economy and a forecast for 2019 were presented Thursday as part of the Georgia Economic Outlook series hosted by the University of Georgia’s Terry College of Business.

For Middle Georgia, the outlook was overall positive as more jobs and more people are expected to come to the area in 2019, however some key challenges remain for the region, said Alexandra Hill, a research analyst for the Selig Center for Economic Growth at Georgia.

The report broke down Middle Georgia into two areas: The Macon area consisting of Macon-Bibb, Crawford, Jones, Twiggs and Monroe counties. The Warner Robins area includes the rest of Houston County as well as Pulaski and Peach counties.

There should be a net growth of 600 jobs in the Macon area this year with construction, health care and financial service industries being the driving forces.

For the Warner Robins area, the forecast calls for a net employment growth of 800 jobs with government, aerospace and high-tech jobs being the largest contributors, Hill said.

“In many ways Macon and Warner Robins complement each other economically by providing many jobs across Middle Georgia,” she said. “2019 is a great year to focus on wage growth and educational attainment which will help insulate Middle Georgia against the next recession.”

One of the biggest issues facing the Macon area continues to be education, Hill said.

Fifteen percent of the area’s adult residents don’t have a high school diploma, which is 2 percent higher than the state average. And the poverty level in the Macon area is 23 percent while it’s 17 percent for Georgia, Hill reported.

Also, the median household income in the Macon area is $41,000 compared to $53,000 average for Georgia.

Those numbers could improve in part with a push by local leaders at the state level for more need-based financial aid, Hill said.

“Macon is home to several major colleges and universities … however a lot of recruitment efforts are directed at Atlanta area high schoolers,” she said.” Why not recruit more residents who live just down the street?”

On a positive economic front, hourly pay in the Macon area is now growing at twice the national rate. And for the the first time since 2010, the Macon area saw more people come to the area than leave last year.

The net migration in 2019 should go up another 500-1,000 people, Hill added.

“If Macon can overcome some of the trends of low educational attainment and low income, it can fulfill it’s potential and reap the economic benefits in 2019 and beyond,” Hill said.

In the Warner Robins area, the presence of Robins Air Force Base and the work force it attracts continues to be a coup.

The increase in military spending means more stability and more well-paying jobs in the near future, Hill said.

“Although heavy reliance on federal funding has been a boon for Warner Robins as of late, industry diversification would help the area insulate itself from future recession area forces,” she said.

State outlook trending positive

For the sixth consecutive year the state will likely outperform the national average in economic growth in 2019, said Ben Ayers, the dean of the University of Georgia’s Terry College of Business.

The economic outlook report predicts strong job growth in areas such as health care, construction and leisure and hospitality, Ayers said.

The rate of job growth should increase by 1.5 percent this year. The national average is expected to be 1.3 percent. Also, personal income is projected to grow by 4.9 percent this year compared to 4.5 percent nationally, Ayers reported.

“Economic growth will be widespread and very well balanced in 2019,” he said. “Indeed we predict job growth in each of Georgia’s 14 metro areas and each of our major industries.”

Federal tax cuts have played a role in the success of Georgia’s economy along with fewer federal regulations and more investment spending, Ayers said.

The state’s unemployment rate this year is expected to be 3.7 percent, the report predicted. It was 4.1 percent last year and the forecast for the national average is 3.5 percent.

“The low unemployment rate is definitely a headwind although in many ways it is a great problem to have it it is simply getting more and more difficult to fill open positions,” Ayers said. “It’s especially difficult to find workers that meet specialized training or educational requirements.”

This story was originally published January 31, 2019 at 4:46 PM.