What declining omicron cases and new antiviral drugs mean for pandemic’s future in GA

Georgia’s omicron wave is finally slowing down. After the highly contagious COVID-19 variant first hit Georgia in early December, case number spiked to record numbers but have steadily declined since the start of February.

And although the seven day average of COVID-19 cases is still more than 2,000 a day in the Peach State, case numbers, hospitalizations and deaths are all down over the last 14-days.

Dr. Jennifer Hoffman, an infectious disease expert with Piedmont Healthcare, said despite the downward trend, it is important for Georgians to understand the numbers are still high. She said omicron cases peaked in some states, like Georgia, before others, and some have yet to reach their omicron peak.

“When you like at it to the prior wave, we still have pretty high case numbers,” Hoffman said. “Here in Middle Georgia, we are down to a total 44 cases in the hospital; I think we peaked around 87 or so. So still moderate numbers but not horrible the way that it was.”

Though more contagious than previous COVID strains, omicron also gained a reputation as more mild. But that’s not the entire story, Hoffman said. Omicron may be milder than previous waves, but it has caused severe illness and death for unvaccinated people.

She said most Piedmont’s ICU beds were filled during omicron’s peak.

“Just because it is less severe doesn’t mean it is mild,” Hoffman said. “I have seen people get very, very sick with omicron; by in large the unvaccinated and to a lesser degree, the immunocompromised.”

Dr. Amber Schmidtke wrote in a recent COVID Digest that COVID-19 is, in no way, mild.

“There’s the erroneous assertion that COVID-19 is mild, like a cold,” she said. “Cold-like illness doesn’t cause the hospital spikes we’re seeing in these waves. Cold-like illness doesn’t kill 900,000 Americans.”

Endemic or pandemic?

In recent weeks, experts like Dr. Anthony Fauci have started to talk about potentially moving into the endemic phase of COVID-19 and out of the pandemic. So what’s the difference?

Hoffman said that in order for COVID-19 to qualify as “endemic,” the virus would be circulating at a low, manageable level with low death rates.

The omicron wave, the least deadly of the waves, still overwhelmed hospitals around the country.

Last month Piedmont had to put elective surgeries on hold due to COVID-19, showing it is still circulating well beyond a low and manageable level.

“I don’t think we are at an endemic phase. I think COVID is still causing a significant disruption,” Hoffman said. “That goes against the definition of what endemic is.”

Hope for the future

Hoffman said there is hope on the horizon in the form of Paxlovid, a new antiviral medication developed by Pfizer. The FDA gave the pill emergency authorization in late December and began to ship around the country last last year. .

Paxvolid reduced the risk of COVID-related hospitalizations and deaths by 89%, according to early data.

Dr. Patrizia Cavazzoni, director of the FDA’s Center for Drug Evaluation and Research, called Paxlovid “a major step forward in the fight against this global pandemic.”

“It is decreases the rate of hospitalizations when patients take it within the first five days of showing symptoms,” Hoffman said. “I feel really hopeful about that. It is going to be a game-changer once we have enough for everyone who needs it… If you can cut hospitalizations by 90% that makes a huge difference.”

The drug could be one of the most significant tools in getting past COVID-19 causing significant disruption and should help keep the spread of deadly cases to a low and manageable level, experts say.

In early January, the U.S. government committed to purchasing an additional 10 million treatment courses of the drug to go alongside an original order of 10 million. Those courses could begin to be delivered by the end of June.

Latest numbers in Middle Georgia

These numbers reflect the latest 14-day trends, compared to the 14 days before that.