Half of Georgians are vaccinated. Will that prevent another holiday COVID spike?

Many Americans stayed home for the holidays last year, worried about contracting COVID-19 or infecting loved ones with the coronavirus.

The widespread availability of multiple vaccines and booster shots, as well as steadily declining cases over the past few months, has encouraged folks to once again gather together. But while cases and deaths have dropped off, especially compared to last November, local and state health experts remain wary about both COVID and the flu.

Georgians also remember last year’s coronavirus spike, the worst of the pandemic, that began around the holidays and peaked in January.

Michael Hokanson, a spokesperson for the North Central Health District (NCHD), said it is hard to say whether Georgia could experience a similar spike but warns people should be cautious of both COVID-19 as well as the flu. The NCHD is the local arm of the state health department and covers 13 Middle Georgia counties.

“We are just now coming off that massive spike and it looks really similar to the spike we saw around the holidays last year,” Hokanson said. “We know that when people begin gathering that it does create the opportunity for transmission to occur… Looking at data from last year, we did see that spike around the holidays, so there is a potential for that but we are hoping with the current trend going downward that is what we will continue to see.”

The 7-day moving average last year for the week of Thanksgiving hovered near 3,000 cases per day. The current 7-day moving average heading into this Thanksgiving week was around 1,000 cases per day. In early September, the seven-day average was at more than 9,350 cases per day.

What’s changed?

One key difference between this year and last year is the tools available for combating COVID-19.

This time last year, the COVID-19 vaccine was not yet available. This year nearly 60% of Georgians have received at least one dose of the vaccine and 51% are fully vaccinated.

Hokanson said the vaccine is the best tool to protect against deaths from COVID-19. Vaccinated Georgians can still spread the virus, but the impact the virus has on individuals who are fully vaccinated is, in most cases, greatly reduced.

He added people should consider getting the flu vaccine as well as take additional precautions if planning gatherings for the holidays.

“We are in the early phases of this year’s flu season, so we do encourage people to get both of those shots. The COVID-19 shot does not protect against the flu and the flu shot does not protect against COVID-19,” Hokanson said. “If you are planning a gathering or you are planning to go to a gathering, make sure that you advise people not to attend if they are ill. You do not want to be in a situation where you are creating an environment where someone can get sick.”

COVID cases per day heading into Thanksgiving week