These Georgia counties are at COVID-19 ‘tipping point’ ahead of Thanksgiving, data show
Daily coronavirus cases in about 13% of counties in Georgia have reached a COVID-19 “tipping point” ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday, according to data released by Harvard University.
Researchers there are mapping the COVID-19 risk according to the seven-day moving average of new cases per 100,000 people in each county. As of Tuesday, at least 21 of Georgia’s 159 counties were in the red zone with 25 or more cases per 100,000 people. Most are concentrated in North Georgia.
But at least one county has achieved the seemingly impossible amid an influx of new coronavirus cases across the U.S. — a rare swatch of green.
The map, released by Harvard Global Health Institute, uses four colors to illustrate risk levels: green, yellow, orange and red. Red designates a “tipping point” in which researchers say stay-at-home orders are necessary, while green indicates the virus is “on track for containment.”
Harvard’s analysis comes after the White House coronavirus task force put Georgia back in the “red zone” in a report dated Nov. 8. The report found 67% of counties “have moderate or high levels of community transmission with 25% landing in the red zone,” the Macon Telegraph reported.
“Georgia has seen an increase in new cases and stability in test positivity,” the report reads. “Triangulation of data suggests there is increasing community spread, especially silent asymptomatic spread that will result in further increases in cases and hospitalizations.”
County breakdown
Whitfield County in North Georgia and Seminole County in the southwest corner of the state have among the highest per capita case rate as of Nov. 17, according to the risk level dashboard. The rates there were 74.5 and 67.1 cases per 100,000 people, respectively.
But some of the counties with the highest and lowest incidence rates in Georgia border each other.
Chattahoochee County on the Alabama state line is reporting 91.7 cases per 100,000 people, according to Harvard researchers.
Just below it, Stewart County has zero cases per 100,000 over the last seven days. The county, home to fewer than 7,000 people, recorded just one new COVID-19 case in the last two weeks, according to the Georgia Department of Public Health.
The state’s more urban population centers — where the coronavirus was initially quicker to spread — fall somewhat in the middle, according to the risk level dashboard.
Bibb County, home to Macon, and Atlanta’s Fulton County are both orange with incidence rates of 18 and 16.7 cases per 100,000 people, respectively, data show. Orange indicates there is “rigorous spread” and stay-at-home orders or extensive contact tracing might be needed.
Chatham County on the South Carolina border is also orange with 12.9 cases per 100,000 people, while Muscogee County — home to Columbus — is in the yellow zone with 7.4 cases per 100,000 people.
Yellow indicates there is community spread and suggests the need for testing and tracing programs.
Thanksgiving risk
Another map released by the Georgia Institute of Technology helps families in any given area calculate the risk of at least one person testing positive for the coronavirus at a Thanksgiving gathering. A gathering of 50 people in Whitfield and Chattahoochee counties, for example, has a risk level of 84%.
The risk of a person testing positive at the same-size gathering in Bibb or Muscogee counties is 35% and 28%, respectively. Fulton County has a risk level of 35%.
Public health experts at the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention have urged Americans to practice social distancing and limit the number of guests at Thanksgiving dinner as the pandemic worsens, citing the risk of transmitting the virus during a shared meal.
In Canada, officials saw a spike in coronavirus cases in the two weeks after Canadian Thanksgiving on Oct. 12, McClatchy News reported. The upward trend has continued into November.
“The leading source of exposures for active cases right now are close contacts, and many of the cases that we are seeing now are the result of spread over Thanksgiving when families gathered together,” Dr. Deena Hinshaw, Alberta’s chief medical officer of health, told CTV.
