Braves at the one-third mark of the season

The Atlanta Braves are at 24-30 through the first 54 games, which is the one-third mark of the 2017 season. With that record, the Braves are on pace for a 72-90 record. That would be a four-game improvement over the 68-93 record a year ago.

They have scored 245 runs — an average of 4.5 runs per game. Unfortunately, the Braves have allowed 282 runs — an average of 5.2 runs per game. They are 10-12 at Sun Trust Park and are 14-18 on the road.

There are games we can look at in the first-third of the season the Braves certainly could have won, with the game Friday night in Cincinnati at the top of that list. Some series stand out, like the three-game sweeps by Pittsburgh, Washington, Philadelphia and St. Louis. There was at least one game in each of those four sets the Braves could have won.

The biggest story so far has been the loss of Freddie Freeman, who was putting up MVP numbers when he was hurt May 17 against Toronto. The Braves are 8-9 since Freeman’s injury, and the addition of Matt Adams has helped ease the pain.

Adams has played in 13 games and is hitting .268 with five home runs and 12 RBI. You can’t beat that. With numbers he put up in St. Louis before the trade, Adams is on pace for 18 home runs and 67 runs batted in.

Here are what the other Atlanta regulars are on pace for at the one-third point of the season:

Ender Inciarte — a .299 batting average, 18 home runs, 72 RBI and 30 stolen bases

Dansby Swanson — a .193 average, 15 home runs and 63 RBI

Nick Markakis — a .283 average, 3 home runs and 72 RBI

Matt Kemp — a .335 average, 30 home runs and 90 RBI and a .369 on-base percentage

Brandon Phillips — a .285 batting average, 9 home runs, 48 RBI and 21 stolen bases

Tyler Flowers — a .365 average, 9 home runs, 48 RBI and a .475 on-base percentage

Adonis Garcia — a .253 average, 12 home runs and 48 RBI

Here are the records the starting pitchers are on pace for:

Julio Teheran — 15-12 - 36 starts - 200 innings

R.A. Dickey — 9-12 - 33 starts - 196 innings

Mike Foltynewicz — 9-15 - 30 starts - 173 innings

Jaime Garcia — 6-9 - 30 starts - 187 innings

Bartolo Colon — 6-18 - 33 starts - 166 innings

Closer Jim Johnson is on pace for 33 saves.

What are some things to look for in the next 54 games?

1 – How long will Bartolo Colon last in the rotation?

Colon will start Monday night against the Phillies. He may have gotten a reprieve due to the awful defense by him and his teammates in his last start, but he’s hanging on by a thread. If he has a start that can’t be characterized as "good" on Monday, it might be Colon’s last start with the Braves. Expect the Braves to move him to the bullpen, unless some other team (the New York Mets?) is dumb enough to trade for him.

2 – Who would get the call if a change in the rotation is made?

There are two candidates in Triple-A knocking on the door. First, Lucas Sims got off to a great start, with a 2.16 ERA in his first seven starts. He walked only nine and struck out 42 in 41 2/3 innings. Sims has struggled in his past three games, going 0-3 with a 7.53 ERA, eight walks and 14 strikeouts in 14 1/3 innings.

Would the last three games trouble the Braves? Well, they must be impressed with Sims’ improvement with his control. His walks-per-nine-innings ratio has gone from 5.9 in 2016 to 2.7 this season. Sims is scheduled to start Monday in Gwinnett. The Braves will be watching closely.

Then there’s Sean Newcomb, who has a 2.97 ERA in 11 starts in Triple-A. He has struck out 74 batters in 57 2/3 innings. His strikeout-per-nine-inning ratio is up from 9.8 in 2016 to 11.5 this season.

Unlike Sims, Newcomb has been red hot of late. He has a 2.08 ERA in his last eight starts, with 27 hits allowed in 43 1/3 innings. He’s walked 24 and struck out 56 and batters have hit only .179 against him in those eight games.

Newcomb is making a case for being ready. He turns 24 next Monday, so he could get a great birthday present if he has a good start this week. The Braves could literally go with the pitcher who pitches best at the time they make the call.

3 – Will Kris Medlen be an option?

Medlen has now pitched four games – two in High-A with Florida and two in Double-A with Mississippi. He has allowed 20 hits in 21 2/3 innings, seven earned runs, seven walks and has struck out 14 batters. That’s an ERA of 2.92.

Scouts say it’s just too early to tell how long it might take Medlen to be a serious option, but he obviously has had good results so far. If he’s doing well at the end of June, and if the Braves think his stuff can play in the big leagues again, we’ll likely see Medlen sometime in July.

4 – Which pitcher will be traded first?

Johnson may be a candidate. Contenders make offers for relievers early, so the Braves could get calls on their closer. Would the Braves be tempted to have Arodys Vizcaino and/or Jose Ramirez, with their 100-mph fastballs, get time as the closer for the rest of the season if they could get a decent piece for Johnson? The answer to that question is likely yes.

5 – Can Tyler Flowers keep this up?

How can a guy who hit .223 in seven seasons with the Chicago White Sox hit close to .300 in his first 122 games with the Braves? Flowers has been tremendous, and he is a serious candidate for the All-Star Game in Miami next month. The Braves desperately need Flowers’ defense to improve, as well.

6 – Can Matt Adams keep it up?

In the next 54 games, the second-third of the 162-game schedule, the Braves will still be without Freeman. They must continue to get production from Adams for the lineup to be productive. Adams is in great shape and seems rejuvenated by the trade. Who knows if he can keep up this pace, but there’s no reason to worry about Adams becoming Casey Kotchman. He’s not Freeman, but the Braves could not have a better replacement in Matt Adams. This was a great trade we might look at as something that saved the season.

7 – Who will get the most time at third base?

Adonis Garcia is back after missing a few weeks with injury, so manager Brian Snitker says he will play both Garcia and rookie Rio Ruiz. Garcia could be a trade candidate, especially if an American League team needs help at third base (the Yankees?) or another bat. The Braves likely will want to test Ruiz even more moving forward, so expect him to get more at bats so the team can see if he’s the future starter.

8 – Can the Braves’ bench be better?

Jace Peterson is now in Gwinnett, and the Braves DFA’d Emilio Bonifacio. Johan Camargo and Danny Santana are now the two main bench players, along with whoever is not starting at third and catcher Kurt Suzuki. Let’s put it this way — it can’t be much worse than it was to start the season, so expect better production in the next few months.

9 – Will the improved schedule help?

With the opening of SunTrust Park, the Braves have played 10 more games on the road so far than at home. That will balance out a bit in the next third of the season, as the Braves will play 30 of the next 54 games at home. In fact, 18 of the next 25 games will be at the Braves’ new home. School is now out, so the crowds will likely get even better at the new park. Atlanta’s players seem to enjoy being home, so this could really help even out the record in the next portion of the season.

10 – What will the record be going into the last-third of the season?

This is a prediction. The Braves will be closer to .500 after the first 108 games of the season than they are now after the first 54 games. This is not a bad team. It’s not a great team, either, but they have shown in stretches they can be successful. Like any team trying to reach .500, the Braves just need to find consistency. Only 25 of the next 54 games are against teams that currently have a winning record, so the time is now to improve the record. If they can get closer to .500, the Braves can make a run in the last-third of the season to hopefully finish with a winning record. This team is not going to the playoffs. There are more roster changes to come, so finishing with a .500 record or better should be the goal. It is very possible, but the next 54 games could be the key.

This story was originally published June 5, 2017 at 12:06 PM with the headline "Braves at the one-third mark of the season."