Valdosta (8-1, 3-0), Northside (8-2, 2-2)
Coffee (5-4, 1-2)
Game remaining: vs. Lee County
Lee County (6-2, 1-2)
Game remaining: at Coffee
Houston County (7-2, 1-2)
Game remaining: vs. Valdosta
The equation to get in is easy. If Houston County loses, the Bears are done, and Lee County and Coffee are in, winning the tiebreaker among 1-3 teams.
If the Bears win — and speculation on how region champion Valdosta will handle the game started before midnight last Friday — they’re in.
The equation regarding seeding after No. 1 is a mess. Head to head is the first three-way tiebreaker, followed by points allowed in region games.
Houston County has allowed 132 points in three games, Lee County 82 and Coffee 67. Northside, which is done, has allowed 80 in four games.
If there’s a three-way tie among 2-2 teams, points allowed determines seeds. Odds are that Northside will be No. 2 and Houston County No. 4, should the Bears win.
Houston County, barring a remarkable breakdown by Lee County or Coffee, loses all tiebreakers among 1-3 teams.
Northside is the No. 2 seed with a Valdosta win or a Coffee giving up at least 13 points to Lee County if Houston County beats Valdosta.
In the first round
It’s good news for all four teams, who face Region 3-6A, which includes four teams that were region opponents last year of Northside and Houston County. Three of those teams (Evans, Lakeside and Grovetown) are in the playoffs, with two of them below .500. Northside won those three games last year by 31, 23 and 21. Houston County won those three by 31, 39 and 32 last year. Odds are good for a sweep no matter who the final two teams are.