Here's part 2 of my predictions for Sunday night's (CBS, 8 p.m.) award show.
It's funny, because with the categories for the men, there was almost an overflow of talent, while with the women, the Academy seemed to pencil in most of the same names as years past, leaving out a bunch of deserving candidates.
I expected the Academy to misfire and not pick "Battlestar Galactica," since the voters rarely show love for either that series or sci-fi/fantasy in general. But how the final season of "The Shield" didn't earn any nominations is pretty much inexcusible, not to mention a couple of final nominations for "Boston Legal."
Simon Baker, The Mentalist
Gabriel Byrne, In Treatment
Bryan Cranston, Breaking Bad
Michael C. Hall, Dexter
Jon Hamm, Mad Men
Hugh Laurie, House
Who will win: I'm guessing Hamm, but I wouldn't be shocked if Cranston earned a repeat. After all, he was just as brilliant as he was in Season 1.
Who should win: Cranston or Laurie. As I said, Cranston was equal to last year's stunning win, but Laurie, so often overlooked in this category, really came through with some of his best work in "House's" shocking season finale. It's a great list overall, except for Baker.
Who was shafted: Michael Chiklis, The Shield. Absolutely unforgiveable for the Academy not to include him or his series, one of the best cop dramas ever made.
Glenn Close, Damages
Sally Field, Brothers & Sisters
Mariska Hargitay, Law & Order: SVU
Holly Hunter, Saving Grace
Elisabeth Moss, Mad Men
Kyra Sedgwick, The Closer
Who will win/should win: Close. There are three Oscar winners on this list, and I think part of the problem the Academy has is that it goes for familiar names rather than who is deserving. It seems like there's an unwritten rule that any award Field is nominated for, she usually wins, but Close had a much meatier role. Moss should have put herself in as a supporting actress. It's hard to argue she was better than January Jones last season.
Who was shafted: Katey Sagal, Sons of Anarchy, and Mary McDonnell, Battlestar Galactica. Sorry, I can't pick one here. Either would have been a better choice than pretty much anyone who was nominated. Sagal was the best thing on the underrated "SoA," while McDonnell is one of the best actresses of her generation.
Christian Clemonson, Boston Legal
Michael Emerson, Lost
William Hurt, Damages
Aaron Paul, Breaking Bad
William Shatner, Boston Legal
John Slattery, Mad Men
Who will win: Hurt. Just like in the actress categories, the Academy will go for the big name.
Who should win: Paul. "Breaking Bad" doesn't work as a series if the Jesse character is too weak, and Paul has proven himself to be the perfect complement to Cranston. Notice I haven't listed Emerson in either case; since I've picked him the last two years and he hasn't one, I promised him in an e-mail I'd try a different tack.
Who was shafted: Walton Goggins, The Shield. There are quite literally about 15 actors I could put in this spot, including the likes of James Callis, David Rees Snell, Josh Holloway, Ron Perlman, Robert Sean Leonard and others. Goggins gets the slight nod because he had the meatiest role and had to prove himself to be a worthy rival to Chiklis' Vic Mackey. I'd prefer anyone on this list to the "Boston Legal" guys.
Rose Byrne, Damages
Hope Davis, In Treatment
Cherry Jones, 24
Sandra Oh, Grey's Anatomy
Dianne Wiest, In Treatment
Chandra Wilson, Grey's Anatomy
Who will win: Wiest, unless she splits votes with Davis. In that case, Jones will get the nod.
Who should win: Byrne. It's not easy holding your own against the likes of Glenn Close, but Byrne proved herself capable.
Who was shafted: ELIZABETH MITCHELL, LOST. YES, I AM SHOUTING! HOW STUPID ARE YOU, EMMY VOTERS?!? Mitchell was the standout star in the show's standout season. And how could January Jones not score a nomination? Actually, the biggest shaft went to CCH Pounder, but given how the Academy apparently lost The Shield's entry in the mail, I'm not really surprised. But Pounder's meltdown during the series' penultimate episode was the best-acted scene on any series this season.
Who will win: Mad Men. If any show knocks it out, it would be fellow AMC series Breaking Bad.
Who should win: If any one of Breaking Bad, Mad Men or Lost wins, I'll be happy. But I don't think Lost has much of a chance.
Who was shafted: Um, The Shield, perhaps?
WEDNESDAY'S BEST BETS: Susan Boyle appears in the season finale of "America's Got Talent" (NBC, 8 p.m.) as the winner is revealed. My guess is that the winner won't get nearly as much attention as Boyle does, since Boyle has been seen by about a third of the planet and I couldn't tell you who are the finalists on "AGT."
An equally fun musical experience can be had with "Glee" (Fox, 9 p.m.), easily one of the five best new shows of the season. It follows a new "So You Think You Can Dance?"
The CW debuts the rather vapid "The Beautiful Life" (CW, 9 p.m.), which has gotten more attention because strung out Mischa Barton plays a strung out model. Life imitates...is art the right word?
Finally, "Dark Blue" (TNT, 10 p.m.) is all new.
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