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Wednesday, Jul. 08, 2009

Braves in a quandary with Francoeur

It was normal to want to be patient with Jeff Francoeur. He was an Atlanta kid, grew up a Braves fan and seemed like the perfect fit for the franchise.

You just had to hope he would snap out of the funk that started last season. But now, that hope is fading.

It’s easy to wonder if Francoeur’s job as the everyday starting right fielder is in jeopardy. Matt Diaz has been hot, and Francoeur has not. So for three games, Diaz was in the lineup, and Francoeur was riding the pine.

Three days in a row is more than just a normal rest for one of your regulars. Bobby Cox won’t necessarily come out and say Francoeur has lost his spot, but actions speak louder than words. One or two days off is just a rest, but three may be a very significant sign.

This is not the path we envisioned when Francoeur was the cover boy on Sports Illustrated his rookie season. Instead, a player with glaring offensive weaknesses has been exposed and is now in need of a change of scenery.

Statheads pointed out in 2006 this might happen. While Francoeur hit 29 home runs and drove in 103 in his first full season, he hit only .260 and his on base percentage was only .293. He was producing runs, but he was not getting on base quite enough.

Then, in 2007, his power decreased, as he hit only 19 home runs. His other numbers, however, got better. His average went up 33 points to .293, while his OBP increased 45 points to .338. That was still not great, but with the run production, it was workable for a right fielder.

The progress from 2006 to 2007 was a good sign, but then everything fell apart last season. Francoeur hit only .239. He had only 11 home runs and drove in only 71, and his OBP went back down to .294.

OK, so it was a bad year. So you bring him back and give him another shot. He was still relatively inexpensive, and if he rebounded to his 2006 or 2007 numbers you would at least feel he did, in fact, just have a bad year and bounced back.

But it hasn’t happened. You could even argue he’s having just as bad a season this year as he did in 2008. Francoeur is on pace for 10 home runs and 66 RBI, while his OBP is .280 and his slugging percentage is only .342. Only his batting average, eight points higher at .247, is an improved statistic from last season.

You just can’t have an unproductive bat like that in a major league lineup. The Braves have enough problems with the offense. It would be different if there were power hitters around Francoeur, but they’re not. And his defense, while solid, is just not enough to keep him in this struggling lineup.

Francoeur’s salary, $3.375 million, makes it even worse. It also makes him difficult to trade. Even with half the season over, not many teams want to pay the $1.65 million left on his deal to see if Francoeur will bounce out of it.

If he’s not traded, the Braves will probably non-tender (release) Francoeur this winter. There’s no way they’d go back to arbitration with him if he continues to struggle. They’ve got Jason Heyward now in Double-A, and there’s a good chance Heyward will be ready to take over in right field next season.

The arbitration matter is another reason teams aren’t trying to trade for him. If the Kansas City Royals, for example, got him in a deal, they’d non-tender him this winter as well. So they’d be better off just waiting for the Braves to non-tender him, so they could sign him as a free agent for a lower salary.

Francoeur said he wasn’t happy about being out of the lineup. Well, no player should be happy about not playing, but he doesn’t have anyone else to blame but himself. The Braves gave him plenty of chances to snap out of this and realize his potential. He needs to face facts — he’s not having a good season, and his chances are running out.

The Bill Shanks Show airs from 3-6 p.m. weekdays on WFSM Fox Sports 1670 and online at www.foxsports1670.com.