Wednesday, Oct. 24, 2007

Despite runaway, Chase still doing its job

In the first three years of the Chase for the championship, the concept of resetting the points standings for the final 10 races of the season worked with multiple drivers having a shot at winning the championship up until the closing laps of the season finale at Homestead-Miami Speedway.

This year, other than the top two in the points standings, the concept of the Chase appears to be broken. Sure, Jeff Gordon has little margin for error with teammate Jimmie Johnson breathing down his neck, 53 points behind. Clint Bowyer still has a shot 115 points back, but he has to be pretty much flawless from here on out, starting Sunday in Hampton, to have a chance.

He'll also need something to change - the luck of Johnson and Gordon that has them coasting to a battle within their own race shop for the title while most everyone else appears to be racing for third place or thinking ahead to 2008.

When something like that happens, the common knee-jerk reaction is something along the lines of shattering the idea of the Chase to tiny bits and heaping blame on NASCAR officials for using things like the Chase and the new car, formerly known as the Car of Tomorrow, to do away with how racing used to be.

Fans, drivers and others can complain all they want about how the Chase is a terrible thing and how NASCAR should throw it into a pile of scrap metal, but the fact of the matter is that the Chase is doing was it was meant to do - create interest and bring NASCAR more attention during a time of year when football dominates the sports landscape.

Under the old points system, Gordon would be leading by a whopping 483 points over Johnson. Tony Stewart would be in third, 551 points out of the lead. That would certainly be a Chase that is an instant cure for insomnia, creating a lot less attention for NASCAR.

During much of the 1980s up through 2000, Atlanta Motor Speedway had the position of being able to crown champions with it hosting the final Cup race of the season. It wasn't uncommon, however, for the title to be clinched before Atlanta as drivers built a big lead during the summer months and coasted to the final few races while everyone else jockeyed for the title of being that season's highest-finishing afterthought.

This year's Chase, as long as Gordon and Johnson don't lose the lucky horseshoes that appear to be resting in their respective racecars, appears to be heading for a less than desirable finish. That said, all it takes is one bad break to change everything. Imagine for example, if Gordon goes into the pits with 40 laps to go Sunday and is penalized for being too fast entering pit road, knocking him from first to the tail end of the lead lap, 35th. That's a difference of 132 points that would suddenly tighten the points Chase in a big way.

The Chase may look like a two-horse race right now, but until the checkered flag falls at Homestead, it's worth keeping a very close eye on.